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Experts forecast gold prices rising to $5,000 amid inflation, central banks’ demand

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran is driving up oil prices, which is a significant pro-inflationary factor

MOSCOW, August 21. /TASS/. Gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by inflation expectations, geopolitical tensions, and strong demand from central banks, experts surveyed by TASS said.

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran is driving up oil prices, which is a significant pro-inflationary factor, said Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya, stock market expert at BCS World of Investment. "Gold has historically risen during periods when there is a risk of accelerating inflation in reserve currencies. Although the recent sell-off in US Treasuries was contained by the US Treasury Department, it still raised concerns regarding the stability of the debt market. In this context, gold also serves as a safe haven," she added.

Rokotyanskaya believes the price of gold, having established itself above the 200-day moving average and a number of major horizontal resistance levels, could well continue its upward movement toward the $4,700-$5,000 per ounce range.

Head of equity market analytics at Alfa-Bank Boris Krasnozhenov also forecasts that the price of gold could test the $4,900-$5,000 per ounce level before the end of the year. "There is strong demand from global central banks and gold ETFs, including in China. With the launch of a centralized gold clearing system in July 2026, Hong Kong’s role as an international settlement center and the world’s largest gold hub is strengthening. Demand for gold from individuals is rising, including in India and China," he said, adding that if the price of gold rises to $5,000 per ounce or higher, the price of silver could move into the $75-80 per ounce range.

Krasnozhenov highlighted several key factors that could drive a further rise in the price of gold: verbal de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to lower oil prices and, consequently, reduced inflation; significant inflows into Chinese gold ETFs in late July and early August, signaling interest in the asset at lower price levels; the continued rise in debt-to-GDP ratios across all countries except Japan through 2031, according to IMF forecasts (US government debt already exceeds $40 trillion); as well as steady physical demand for gold despite the price drop in the first half of 2026

A report by the World Gold Council (WGC) previously stated that global central banks’ demand for gold rose significantly in the second quarter of 2026, reaching 289 tons, which is five times higher than the revised result for the first quarter (57 tons) and marks a record for the second quarter.

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