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Gas price in EU to drop below $300 per 1,000 cubic meters by end of heating season

There are no prerequisites for growth of prices compared with current levels now, Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman noted

© AP Photo/Petr David Josek, File

MOSCOW, January 8. /TASS/. The price of gas in Europe will normalize and drop below $300 per 1,000 cubic meters by the end of the heating season amid record reserves in storage facilities and the commissioning of new LNG capacities in the US in 2024, Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman told TASS.

There are no prerequisites for growth of prices compared with current levels now, the expert noted. In particular, gas reserves in the EU remain record high, while considering persisting saving policies, the lack of supply disruptions and neutral winter weather so far, the EU’s underground storage facilities may be 50-55% full by the end of the heating season. This is also close to record levels and it may create a good basis for the EU to accumulate reserves before the heating season of 2024-2025.

That said, the demand and supply balance on the global gas market remains narrow, though starting the second half of 2024 the commissioning of new LNG capacities is expected to start.

"Projects with total capacity of around 50 bln cubic meters per year may be commissioned next year. The US will account for the majority of new capacities, which will make the passing of the next heating season even easier for the EU. With those factors coupled, we expect a decline in gas prices in the EU below $300 per 1,000 cubic meters by the end of the heating season, which would mean their full normalization," Kaufman said.

The decline in the gas prices together with growth of supply creates prerequisites for moderate recovery of demand from the side of European industry, the analyst added. "However, it may still be at least 10% lower in 2024 than its average during the pre-crisis 2017-2021," he said.

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