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World oil prices

Oil price path in 2026-2027 may be higher than forecasted in July — Bank of Russia

The assumption regarding the normalization timeline for the situation in the Middle East embedded in the July forecast did not materialize, the regulator noted

MOSCOW, November 5. /TASS/. The trajectory of global oil prices in 2026-2027 may turn out to be higher than it was anticipated in July, the Bank of Russia said in the key rate discussion summary.

"The international oil prices in the third quarter of 2026 evolved above expectation. The assumption regarding the normalization timeline for the situation in the Middle East embedded in the July forecast did not materialize," the Central Bank said.

"In such environment, the participants considered expedient to provide in the updated baseline scenario for later recovery of navigation over the Strait of Hormuz and higher path of Russian oil prices in 2026-2027 than assumed in July," the regulator added.

The Bank of Russia lowered the oil price outlook for taxation in 2026 from $65 to $60 per barrel in this July. The forecast for the years of 2027 and 2028 was revised downward to $50 per barrel.

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