MOSCOW, October 29. /TASS/. The upcoming Putin-Xi-Trump summit in China is expected to focus on arms control, regional conflicts, and the future of international security; Slovakia is pushing for a greater EU role in Ukraine peace talks, including appointing an envoy for dialogue with Russia; and Republicans face possible defeat in the US midterms, raising concerns that Trump may refuse to accept the results. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Kommersant: Russia, China, US summit could help shape new world order, establish rules of engagement
The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and US President Donald Trump, expected to take place on November 18-19 on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, will be a historic event regardless of its outcome - no comparable gathering has ever taken place. Kommersant asked leading Russian experts to share their views on which substantive issues might define the agenda of this unprecedented meeting.
Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine and chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, believes that the meeting in Shenzhen will be primarily symbolic in nature, "but its significance should not be underestimated." "The demonstration that the world’s three largest countries, which differ considerably in both their means of exerting global influence and their respective interests, are capable of discussing global issues in a trilateral format would send a clear signal. It would mark the emergence of a particularly significant format in an increasingly chaotic and fragmented world," he told the newspaper.
"A fundamental achievement of a potential trilateral meeting would be an agreement on the principles of predictable conduct toward one another and the restoration of a sense of stability in international relations. However, whether the United States will be in a position to provide guarantees of its own predictable behavior remains an open question," Andrey Sushentsov, dean of the Faculty of International Relations at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) and a Candidate of Political Sciences, told Kommersant.
Dmitry Trenin, president of the Russian International Affairs Council and research director of the Institute of World Military Economy and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, noted that comparisons with the "Big Three," which convened in Tehran, Yalta, and Potsdam between 1943 and 1945, are "inappropriate." "Nevertheless, the planned meeting of the leaders of Russia, China, and the United States in Shenzhen is a tangible indication that three leading powers hold sway over the geopolitical, military, and, to some extent, technological dimensions of today’s world. The summit on Chinese soil represents a step toward building a new world order architecture," he added.
"The three leaders have no shortage of issues to discuss. First, holding the APEC forum in China’s technology hub of Shenzhen will bring a substantial economic component to the agenda. Second, Donald Trump will almost certainly seek to prioritize the future of arms control following the expiration of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. Third, the heads of state cannot avoid addressing regional conflicts, including Ukraine. Moscow hopes to discuss the framework of European security directly among the major powers, without the participation of Brussels or Kiev," Natalia Tsvetkova, acting director of the Institute for US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Kommersant.
Izvestia: Slovakia urges greater EU role in Ukraine peace talks
Slovakia supports appointing a European Union representative for the Ukrainian settlement process, Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar told Izvestia. According to him, the candidate for this role should be acceptable to both sides of the conflict as well as to countries actively involved in peace initiatives. Bratislava believes that the EU must take a more active role in the peace process and in dialogue with Russia.
"Since the very beginning of the war in Ukraine, the current government of the Slovak Republic has maintained that there is no military solution to this conflict and that lasting peace cannot be achieved without diplomatic dialogue involving all parties. At the same time, we believe it is important for the European Union to play a more active role in the peace process and in dialogue with Russia if it wishes to preserve its natural position and defend its own interests, including its vision of a pan-European security architecture," the minister told Izvestia.
According to him, "the sooner negotiations begin, the sooner further human suffering and destruction can be prevented."
"We therefore believe that discussing the participation of an EU representative in peace negotiations is entirely appropriate. We fully support this idea and have advocated it from the outset. We support a candidate who would be acceptable to both parties to the conflict and to countries actively contributing to peace efforts," he added.
Media reports have identified Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store as potential negotiators, both of whom spoke by phone with Vladimir Putin this week. However, they contacted Moscow on behalf of their respective countries rather than the EU as a whole. This lack of coordination at the European level has already drawn sharp criticism from some countries, Izvestia noted.
The principal obstacle facing Brussels remains the absence of a unified position on the Ukrainian crisis. Against this backdrop, the EU is considering an alternative approach, as Member of the European Parliament Fernand Kartheiser previously told Izvestia. Rather than appointing a single special representative, it could establish a full negotiating team, he said.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Trump’s potential refusal to accept Republican defeat emerges as key uncertainty in US midterms
US House Speaker Mike Johnson, a prominent figure in the Republican Party, has made a highly ambiguous remark. He said Republicans would cede power if they lost the November 3 elections, but expressed hope that it would not come to that. In effect, Johnson, speaking on behalf of his party, has implicitly, if not explicitly, backed Donald Trump’s position, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. Trump said he would recognize the election results only if the vote was fair, while simultaneously raising the possibility of electoral fraud by Democrats. Increasingly, the central uncertainty surrounding the elections is not who will win, but whether Trump will accept the results.
As the congressional elections draw closer, opinion polls are showing an increasingly unfavorable outlook for Republicans. According to the surveys, President Trump’s party, which currently holds majorities in both chambers of Congress, is almost certain to lose control of the House of Representatives and is also likely to cede the Senate to the Democratic Party.
"Trump is engaged in an extraordinarily high-stakes gamble. The stakes are enormous - quite literally, it is all or nothing. The prospect of having to fend off investigations and possibly an impeachment attempt if Democrats win is not even the most important consideration. Trump will probably find some way out of that predicament, as he has done before. The real issue is that he has Napoleonic ambitions. He wants to leave his mark on history, reshape the world, and accomplish something on a global scale. But if Democrats secure a majority in Congress, those ambitions will effectively be curtailed," Vladimir Vasilyev, chief research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Trump could pursue a wide range of options after November 3, he added. Vasilyev also outlined the most extreme scenario, which currently appears unlikely but cannot be ruled out entirely.
This would involve an attempt to undermine the foundations of American democracy by declaring a state of emergency to delay the start of the new Congress’s term. Such a move would constitute a desperate gamble, but Trump has repeatedly demonstrated that he is not afraid of taking risks.
Izvestia: Ukraine-South Korea diplomatic dispute may threaten arms supplies
A major crisis is deepening in relations between Ukraine and South Korea. Seoul has announced the recall of eight members of its embassy staff in Kiev and threatened to sever diplomatic relations entirely. Experts told Izvestia the dispute is undermining Vladimir Zelensky’s hopes of securing additional weapons.
The disagreements between the two countries surfaced in late September. At the time, Vladimir Zelensky, addressing the United Nations General Assembly in New York, announced that two North Korean servicemen who had been captured by Ukrainian forces during the fighting in the Kursk Region had been handed over to Seoul.
The Ukrainian leadership, whether intentionally or inadvertently, has undermined the position of President Lee Jae Myung, according to Alexander Zhebin, leading research fellow at the Center for Korean Studies of the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Kiev denies the existence of secret agreements, effectively accusing the South Korean leader of lying.
"Why are the Ukrainians acting this way? Apparently, they either consider short-term political gains more important or are simply being excessively irresponsible. Nevertheless, I do not expect diplomatic relations to be severed. That would be an extremely serious step, one that often precedes war, and there is no indication of anything resembling a war in this case," the expert explained.
He also suggested that Seoul may have deliberately inflated the controversy to distance itself from the Ukrainian conflict, thereby gaining a strong justification for refusing to supply Kiev with weapons.
Political analyst Alexander Semchenko believes the current dispute is unlikely to have a significant impact on Ukraine’s position. He is convinced that Zelensky, who is acting against the wishes of US President Donald Trump, is even less concerned about South Korea’s grievances.
"He apparently believes that Seoul will be compelled to continue supporting Kiev under any circumstances because there is a common political will in the West to do so, and South Korea will be unable to resist it," the analyst told the newspaper.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Africa’s surging energy demand opens new opportunities for Russian oil, gas companies
African countries could surpass India and China in oil, gas and refined petroleum product demand growth, according to long-term forecasts by major consulting and analytical organizations, including OPEC, S&P Global, Wood Mackenzie and the International Energy Agency (IEA), Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
Africa’s share of global oil demand is projected to rise from 4.5% this year to 7.8% by 2045-2050, while its share of global gas demand is expected to increase from 4% to 7.5%. In addition, African countries are set to increase their share of the global market as producers of raw materials, including crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
This growth will be driven by three main factors: rapid population growth, urbanization, and the continent’s still relatively low levels of per capita energy consumption, Viktoria Trifonova, senior analyst at the Yakov and Partners analytical center, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
Meanwhile, Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at the Rikom-Trust investment company, noted that many African countries remain entirely dependent on imported fuel due to limited domestic oil refining capacity.
As Vasily Kutyin, director of analytics at Ingo Bank, pointed out, Africa accounts for 7% of global gas reserves. However, 70% of these reserves are located in deepwater offshore areas, while up to 30 bln cubic meters of associated petroleum gas are flared annually. For Russian companies, this translates into demand not so much for "raw materials in their pure form" as for technologies related to extraction, the monetization of associated gas, and the development of LNG infrastructure.
Africa’s oil and gas industry has enormous growth potential, but the operating environment for investors remains challenging, Abelev agreed.
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