MOSCOW, November 3. /TASS/. The EU considers carrying out a mission in the Black Sea, risking accidents and direct escalation with Russia; the Republican party is likely to face defeat in the US midterm elections; Bulgaria's second round of presidential elections revealed its first female leader. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: EU may abandon its idea of Black Sea military mission
There is no consensus within the EU on the issue of deploying a military mission to the Black Sea. Earlier, the European Parliament adopted a resolution urging EU countries to consider launching a mission to protect commercial vessels. However, deploying warships to the Black Sea poses a high risk of accidents and direct confrontation with Russia. Experts emphasize that such a move would require Turkey's consent, as it controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits. However, Ankara is unlikely to give its approval.
The reluctance of some states to engage in direct conflict with Russia is hampering efforts by EU countries to reach a unified position on establishing a naval mission in the Black Sea, European Parliament Member Thierry Mariani, who represents the Patriots for Europe political group, told Izvestia. "Of course [there is no consensus], because there are countries that realize just how dangerous this is," the lawmaker emphasized. "This idea is just as foolish as sending ground troops to Ukraine," Mariani noted. "We are being asked to guarantee the security of trade by sending European warships under NATO command to an area where two sides are already confronting each other. This is nothing less than a pretext for a major incident and an escalation of the conflict," he noted.
Meanwhile, another Black Sea power, Turkey, which is seeking EU membership, has no intention of jeopardizing its relations with Russia, German political scientist Alexander Rahr stressed. The Black Sea region has historically been shared between Turkey and Russia. Ankara does not want to see other players, especially Western military assets, on its doorstep, the analyst emphasized. St. Petersburg State University professor Natalya Yeremina, in turn, argued that it would be extremely difficult for the EU to reach an agreement with Turkey because Ankara could put forward demands that Brussels is unlikely to accept.
Earlier, Turkey proposed that all sides establish a mechanism to prevent attacks in the Black Sea, an idea that Moscow and Kiev rejected. In response, Moscow emphasized that the Black Sea initiative and other proposals aimed at stopping attacks, including those along the line of engagement, failed due to Ukraine's and the West's unwillingness to reach an understanding. "As far as I know, we are not considering the possibility of concluding any agreements that would even remotely resemble the previous Black Sea initiative, which ended in disgrace, since, as far as Russia is concerned, it was never properly implemented," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia.
Media: Republican party poised for defeat in US midterms
The US midterm elections will take place in the early morning hours of November 4, according to GMT, and will mark the halfway point of Republican President Donald Trump’s term. The vast majority of polls indicate greater support for the president’s opponents, the Democrats. This holds true for both the House of Representatives and, in some cases, the Senate.
A historical trend is working against the Republicans and Trump: the president’s party has almost always lost control of the House of Representatives in midterm elections, Vladimir Vasilyev, chief research fellow at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. According to him, since 1946, there have been 20 midterm elections, and the president’s party lost seats in the House in 18 of them. The expert stressed that the question in the House of Representatives is not who will win, but rather the size of the Democrats’ lead.
The situation currently is more favorable to the Democrats in the Senate, Dubravsky Consulting head Pavel Dubravsky noted. According to the expert, the assessment is based on public opinion models of voter preferences, as well as forecasting models.
If the Democrats win only the House, there will be no significant foreign policy repercussions, Maxim Cherkashin, a research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasized. According to the expert, if he chooses, Trump will still be able to issue general licenses for trade with Russia, which would ease the sanctions. "If Congress wants to approve a new aid package for Ukraine, Trump will simply veto it. The Democrats won’t have the resources to overturn that veto," Cherkashin pointed out. As for other issues, with the Democrats effectively blocking Trump's domestic policy initiatives, he will turn greater attention to foreign policy. Therefore, the president can be expected to carry out new attacks on Iran and step up his tariff blackmail of trading partners, the expert said.
The Democrats may fare worse than the polls predict, American studies expert Malek Dudakov told Izvestia. However, the overall outcome is still likely to favor them. According to the analyst, one of the main factors is Donald Trump’s declining popularity. Voters are disappointed by rising fuel prices resulting from the conflict with Iran and trade wars.
Vedomosti: Bulgaria to have its first female president
On November 1, in the second round of Bulgaria’s presidential election, 62-year-old Iliana Yotova claimed victory. Her candidacy was backed by former President Rumen Radev, who became prime minister in 2026. According to the Central Election Commission, Yotova and her running mate, journalist Kiril Valchev, received nearly 58% of the vote with all ballots counted. Meanwhile, Andrey Gyurov, a former liberal lawmaker and deputy head of the Bulgarian National Bank, secured about 39% of the vote and admitted defeat.
In her address to voters, Yotova openly acknowledged that without the support of Prime Minister Radev and his Progressive Bulgaria party, she and her running mate would "not have succeeded." Radev congratulated his longtime ally’s victory: from 2017 to January 2026, Yotova served as vice president alongside him, and after Radev’s premature resignation to run in the parliamentary elections, she took over the responsibilities of head of state. Thus, the newly elected president became the first woman to hold this office in Bulgarian history.
The presidential election results bolster Radev’s position: he will now have a free hand without having to worry about potential criticism or even resistance from the head of state, Nikita Gusev, a research fellow at the Institute of Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. In the first round, it was likely Radev’s supporters who did not show the necessary level of mobilization around Yotova’s candidacy, he said.
Given Radev and Yotova’s pragmatism and their calls for constructive dialogue, this can be regarded as a positive development for Moscow, the expert pointed out. Although Radev is not a pro-Russian politician, as demonstrated by his actions in recent months, he did, for instance, invite allies to patrol these territories following the incidents involving drone attacks on ships in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone, while carefully urging an investigation into the incidents.
Moreover, Gusev stressed that, on the whole, Bulgaria cannot be considered a major player in terms of political influence in Europe. The Bulgarian president only acquires substantial powers in the event of a government crisis, as was the case during Radev’s presidency.
Izvestia: Decentralized youth protests spread across Germany
Last weekend, Germany witnessed youth protests involving tens of thousands of people, with new demonstrations planned in 34 cities. Thus, the number of European countries experiencing youth protests continues to rise. Students are leading the protests, calling on authorities to reduce military spending and boost social expenditure. Experts believe that if young people unite with labor unions, the scale of the protests will expand, potentially compelling governments to revise their policies.
The youth movement "Gen Z regelt" (Gen Z Decides) has called for new large-scale protests in Germany set to take place on November 20 in 34 cities. This movement is a new phenomenon in local politics, having emerged in October following student protests in France and Spain. It has already demonstrated its appeal, bringing tens of thousands of people onto the streets of German cities last weekend. The movement has no well-defined organizational structure and organizes its activities through social media. Gen Z Decides is demanding an end to soaring rent prices, the restoration of cut student grants, an end to education budget cuts stemming from a sharp increase in military spending, and the scrapping of plans to reinstate mandatory conscription.
However, Matthias Moosdorf, a German lawmaker representing the Alternative for Germany party, told Izvestia that the situation is unlikely to worsen. "I don’t think a situation similar to what happened in Paris or Milan is possible in Germany, at least not right now, considering the current state of society. The reasons are likely similar to those seen in other Western European countries, but the situation in Germany is different. For example, it’s fairly easy to stage a demonstration in France, whereas in Germany, it takes much more effort to mobilize people and get them onto the streets for any reason," the politician noted.
The key factor behind the mass protests lies in widespread economic pessimism, international studies expert Yegor Sergeyev emphasized. The current unrest is a sign of a deep crisis in the European economic model, which can no longer afford to maintain its former social guarantees. Today, young people have begun fighting for basic survival and against the complete loss of life prospects, Ramil Veliyev, a senior lecturer at RUDN University, stressed.
Given the substantial budget deficit, there is no money for large-scale investments in the social sector, so officials are trying to introduce piecemeal steps that prove ineffective, Russian Financial University associate professor Maria Dobrina pointed out. If the authorities fail to find common ground with young people, the protests will grow stronger. They are already receiving considerable backing from major national labor unions, such as France’s CGT and Italy’s left-wing unions.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Reasons behind persistently high oil prices despite rising supply
Oil prices remain above $100 per barrel for benchmark Brent crude, despite a partial recovery in oil supplies from the Persian Gulf countries and reports of a potential agreement between the US and Iran. On November 2, following reports of progress in indirect negotiations between the two countries, prices slipped slightly below $110 per barrel.
According to Kpler estimates, the Strait of Hormuz is currently handling approximately 82% of its previous volume, or about 21 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products daily. However, when alternative export routes from Persian Gulf countries are taken into account, shipments of crude oil and fuel are currently higher than before the crisis began, reaching nearly 24 million barrels per day.
Oleg Zhirnov, a partner in the investment and capital markets division at Kept, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the gap between futures and spot contracts persists: physical oil is five to ten dollars per barrel more expensive. Finam Financial Group analyst Nikolay Dudchenko noted that markets operate on the principle of "buy on rumors, sell on facts." The focus is currently on a possible renewal of hostilities in the Middle East, which could generate additional risks, he said.
By the end of September, global oil and petroleum product inventories were 509 million barrels below their pre-crisis levels, Ivan Timonin, a senior manager at the Implementa consulting firm, emphasized. According to him, inventories remain depleted, and the risk of new supply disruptions is high. As a result, buyers are seeking to lock in supplies in advance, thereby supporting demand for physical oil and keeping prices high.
A significant share of the current oil price consists of insurance and transportation costs, which have surged. Tankers navigate with their transponders turned off, under escort from military ships, often moving cargo from smaller vessels to supertankers, experts recalled.
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