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Russia may return to gas production, export growth in 2025 — experts

Gas revenues may actually reach the level in 2021 and amount to $97 bln on condition of prices stabilization and implementation of planned export projects, experts said

© EPA-EFE/MAXIM SHIPENKOV

MOSCOW, August 7. /TASS/. Revenues of the Russian gas sector may drop by more than twofold to $71 bln and gas exports may lose about a quarter down to 126 bln cubic meters, Yakov & Partners consultancy said in its research seen by TASS.

Russia can return to gas production and export growth as early as in 2025, experts say.

According to the forecast, gas production in Russia can decline by 5% year on year or by 30 bln cubic meters against the last-year end. Gas exports may plummet by 24%, including the decline in pipeline exports by a third to 80 bln cubic meters. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies overseas may tick up by 2% to 46 bln cubic meters. "European countries have already lowered imports of Russian gas to the minimum and, according to our estimates, the recovery of earlier volumes of exports to this region is unlikely," experts noted.

At the same time, Russia may ramp up gas production to 695 bln cubic meters since 2025 and surpass the level of 2021 and reach 799 bln cubic meters by 2030. Gas exports may total 151 bln cubic meters in 2025 and 211 bln cubic meters by 2030. Implementation of all planned pipeline projects will not make it possible to level up the drop in deliveries to Europe, while production may grow on account of new export projects, including LNG, ammonia and urea production and higher domestic consumption of natural gas, experts said. "In case such approaches are implemented successfully, gas production in Russia will start growing since 2025 and export 'shortfalls' will be completely compensated by 2030," the research indicates.

Gas revenues may actually reach the level in 2021 and amount to $97 bln on condition of prices stabilization and implementation of planned export projects. The share of gas exports as part of overall revenues will decline to 50-60% against 74% in 2021, the research reads.

Ammonia production is a promising method of gas monetization, analysts said. "Friendly countries of Asia, Latin American and Africa support high demand for ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers in the first instance. Russia as a net gas exporter will always have a competitive advantage on the ammonia market owing to cheapness of initial feedstock. The share of Russia in the global market may grow to 14% (it was 9% in 2022), and ammonia exports in absolute terms may almost double from 17 to 31 mln metric tons," experts said.

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