MOSCOW, November 6. /TASS/. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has significantly downgraded its economic outlook for the current year, raising its inflation forecast and predicting a contraction in GDP, according to the regulator’s October report.
"The inflation forecast for 2026 has been raised to 12.5%," the document states.
Earlier, the NBU expected year-end inflation to stand at 10%. The regulator recorded a sharp acceleration in consumer prices during the third quarter, with the annual inflation rate jumping from 7.2% in June to 10% in September.
According to NBU estimates, widespread damage to logistics and warehousing infrastructure will add roughly 0.7 percentage points to annual inflation. Surging fuel costs driven by the Middle East conflict are also expected to fuel inflationary pressures.
The central bank’s outlook for GDP is equally pessimistic. While the regulator previously anticipated 1.8% growth for the year, its October report revised the forecast down to a 0.4% contraction.
The NBU attributed the downturn to the seaport blockade and damage to production facilities, logistics networks, and energy infrastructure, which has triggered a knock-on effect across other sectors, most notably agriculture.
However, the regulator expects the economy to return to a modest GDP growth of 0.4% in 2027.