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Bank of Russia may either raise key rate to 20% or keep it as it is now — experts

Today, the experts' views are quite ambiguous and differ by about 300 bp regarding the upcoming meeting of the regulator

MOSCOW, September 11. /TASS/. At the meeting on September 13, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia may raise the key rate by 200 basis points (bp) at once, to 20% per annum, according to experts polled by TASS. However, some of them do not rule out that the regulator will not change the interest rate.

At the previous meeting, the regulator raised the rate by 200 bp - to 18% per annum, considering accelerated inflation due to the growth of domestic demand. The Bank of Russia noted that citizens' purchases are significantly ahead of the possibilities for expanding the supply of goods and services. At that time, the regulator's decision did not come as a surprise to the market - most of the analysts polled were expecting a broad step and the continuation of tough rhetoric.

Today, the experts' views are quite ambiguous and differ by about 300 bp regarding the upcoming meeting of the regulator. Thus, some analysts believe that the continued inertia in price growth will push the Bank of Russia to increase the rate to 19-20% on Friday. Others admit that the increase may be postponed until the meeting in October, when more input data will be received.

Regardless of the forecast for the meeting this Friday, most experts agree that by the end of 2024 the rate will be at 20% per annum. If the regulator does not raise the rate immediately by 200 bp in September, this will happen gradually until the end of the year.

Market participants' forecasts:

ACRA - 18%

Alfa-Bank - 18%

VTB - 19-20%

Veles Capital - 18%

RSHB Asset Management - 18%

Russian Standard - 19-20%

Renaissance Capital - 18%

Sovcombank - 20%

Alfa-Capital - 19%

Pervaya Asset Management - 20%

Uralsib - 19%

Alfa-Forex - 19%

Finam - 19%

Tsifra Broker - 18-19%

BCS World of Investment - 18%.

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