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Gold price rally to continue, experts say

The gold price will stand at $2,500-2,600 per ounce in the baseline best case, Nikolay Dudchenko noted

MOSCOW, August 6. /TASS/. The rise in gold prices will continue in the near term amid the geopolitical situation, deepening fragmentation of the global economy and other factors, Nikolay Dudchenko from Finam told TASS.

The increased probability of a full-scale conflict escalation start in the Middle East and a ‘pacifying’ signal from FOMC of the US Federal Reserve at the committee meeting last week became main causes of active growth of gold prices that started in mid-July, the expert sad.

"Our gold price forecasts are optimistic. We believe the rise in prices will continue with a greater degree of probability. This is especially so for long-term prospects," Dudchenko said. The process of gold prices growth will be facilitated by the geopolitical situation, continuing fragmentation of the global economic system, where we are becoming witnesses to de-globalization and the gradual slow process of the loss of the world reserve currency status by the dollar, and by the possible trade war between the US and China in the future, the analyst noted. "It is fairly difficult to predict the future level of gold prices. We believe the asset has the probability to reach the level of $2,700 [per ounce] in one-two years to come. In the best case, we will be able to see this level even in the present year," he said.

The gold price will stand at $2,500-2,600 per ounce in the baseline best case, Dudchenko added.

Expectations of Fed rate lowering, the conflict in the Middle East, gold buying by central banks and inflow or outflow of money to gold ETFs continue to be key drivers of gold prices, Tatiana Galich from Renaissance Capital said. "According to our estimates, the average gold price can be about $2,300-2,400 per ounce in 2024 but we do not rule out a higher price level in case of more aggressive lowering of the Fed rate in the second half of 2024 and conflict escalation in the Middle East," Galich stressed. The pressure on prices may come from slowdown of economic growth in China and the US, which may entail in particular jewelry demand contraction, she added.

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