ST. PETERSBURG, April 14. /TASS/. Russia’s car market could contract by as much as 20% in 2025, falling to 1.2 mln vehicles, Commercial Director at Auto.ru Daniil Shkurygin told TASS.
"Last year was relatively strong for the automotive market - 1.55 mln vehicles were sold. That’s a solid figure for our country. However, the first quarter of this year began with a noticeable slowdown in the market. Based on current trends, we expect around 1.3 mln vehicles to be sold in 2025, which would reflect a 15% decline from last year. Still, we do not rule out a scenario in which the drop reaches 20%, with total sales falling to 1.2 mln vehicles," he explained.
According to the expert, the primary factor behind the decline in auto sales is the high key interest rate. "Given the elevated key rate and the corresponding high loan interest rates, not everyone can afford to purchase a vehicle, especially considering the resulting financial burden. As part of the Bank of Russia’s policy to cool the market, the country’s monetary policy was significantly tightened toward the end of last year, which in turn led to a sharp increase in loan application rejections," Shkurygin noted.
Shkurygin also said the return of foreign car brands is unlikely to occur within the coming year.
"We see the prospects for foreign brands returning to Russia as rather uncertain. Even if a manufacturer decided today to resume operations in the country, it would take at least a year to receive approval for their vehicles, as supplies were suspended for a long time, the technical documentation is outdated, and updating it requires considerable time," he said.
Additionally, he noted that rebuilding dealer networks would be a challenge, since former showrooms have already been occupied by other brands.