MOSCOW, January 9. /TASS/. The entry of Sweden and Finland into the North Atlantic Alliance in 2023 will depend on the course of the special military operation of Russia in Ukraine and the position of Turkey, Timofey Bordachev, program director of the Valdai Club, said in an interview with a TASS on Sunday.
"The entry of these countries into NATO depends on the successful course of the special military operation. It is not that simple. If the special military operation develops successfully, the United States will have more reasons to strengthen its presence on the borders with the Russia. But there are too many different input factors here," he said.
Bordachev also pointed out that Turkey has a significant influence on the membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO.
"Ankara is also playing its game, it understands that the delay in the entry of these countries into NATO is not a fundamental problem for anyone, so it can play its game and receive concessions, first of all, from Sweden, as long as it works," he explained.
When asked how likely is for the two countries to join NATO in 2023, the analyst replied: "I would estimate the chances as 50% It is still difficult to give an unambiguous forecast on this matter."
On Sunday, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said it is impossible for Sweden to meet the conditions Turkey imposed on it to ratify its NATO bid. In turn, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto noted that the country intends to wait until the NATO states approve Sweden's application to join the alliance.
On May 18, Sweden and Finland filed applications to join NATO, but the process was immediately blocked by Turkey, who demanded that these two Nordic countries brand Kurdish organizations as terrorist entities, and extradite those charged with terrorism or implicated in the 2016 coup plot, in addition to removing restrictions on weapons exports.
On June 28, in the run-up to the NATO summit in Madrid, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, then-Prime Minister of Sweden Magdalena Andersson along with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg held talks that resulted in a memorandum that would make it possible for Stockholm and Helsinki to join NATO. According to the Turkish leader, Sweden promised to extradite over 70 people involved in terrorist activities.