BUDAPEST, April 10. /TASS/. The ruling party coalition in Hungary, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and his opponents from the opposition Tisza party have a roughly equal chance of winning the parliamentary elections scheduled for April 12, which will result in the formation of a new government, Gabor Stier, a member of the Valdai International Discussion Club and a Hungarian political scientist told TASS in an interview.
"The chances are equal," the expert said, offering a sports analogy where two teams are tied going into the final minutes of the championship game, with the outcome uncertain.
The game itself, that is, the election campaign, according to Stier, was quite dirty, marked by scandals, mutual accusations, and interference by outside forces, including foreign intelligence services. Orban and company claimed that Tisza, led by MEP Peter Magyar, is supported by EU leaders and Ukraine, while the opposition spread rumors about Russian assistance to the Hungarian authorities.
The political scientist recalled that elections in Hungary are held under a mixed system: out of 199 seats in the National Assembly (unicameral parliament), 93 are distributed according to party lists, and 106 are from single-mandate constituencies. Currently, the Fidesz-Hungarian Civic Alliance party and its junior partners, the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP), hold 135 parliamentary mandates.
In the upcoming elections, Tisza could gain an advantage in the party list vote, while Fidesz and its allies could win in the single-mandate constituencies, the expert believes. "In the party list vote, it will be either 50-50, or Tisza will be slightly ahead," Stier specified.
He also suggested that neither Fidesz nor Tisza may win more than 50% of the seats in the National Assembly, in which case Fidesz and KDNP would be forced to form a coalition with the radical right party "Our Homeland," which, according to forecasts, should also overcome the 5% threshold for entering parliament. "They will have no other choice," the expert said, adding that such a move is fully in line with the norms of parliamentary democracy. In this case, Orban could remain prime minister for another four years.