LONDON, June 23. /TASS/. Iran will mostly likely respond militarily to the US’ attacks, which could lead to further escalation of the conflict, according to Ambrey Threat Circular provided by the British maritime security firm to TASS.
"American statements indicate they are willing to restart negotiations, but it is unclear if the US intervention is over, and it is almost certain that Iran will respond militarily to the attacks, which could lead to further escalation," the company said.
The Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be fully closed by Iran in response to the US’ actions, and the closure would be to certain affiliations, Ambrey noted. "Whilst the stated threat to the Strait of Hormuz has been non-specific, it is more likely that if Iran were to declare the Strait closed, it would be to certain affiliations. A complete closure would be to the detriment of Iran’s relations with its neighbors and disruptive to the world’s economy, which would impact its partners. It is assessed unnecessary to do this," the document reads.
"At the time of writing, no merchant shipping has been damaged or seized, but the risk to Israel-and US-affiliated shipping is assessed to be high," Ambrey said.
Five publicly US-affiliated merchant ships departed the Persian Gulf following the US’ attacks, and several US-flagged merchant ships have gathered in UAE territorial seas, the company added. "Ambrey is aware of at least five merchant ships that were destined to enter the Persian Gulf but about-turned or chose to wait. At least two of these did not bear a public US-affiliation, indicating broader concern in the market," according to the document.
In the early morning hours of June 22, US President Donald Trump announced that the US had successfully attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump later said that the facilities were completely destroyed, calling it an impressive military success. Iran’s top brass, in turn, said that the US strikes were completely ineffective and threatened Washington with a tough response. Russia condemned the US actions.
Overnight into June 13, Israel kicked off Operation Rising Lion, aimed against Iran’s nuclear program. Iran responded in less than 24 hours. In the following days, Tel Aviv and Tehran exchanged strikes again. Both parties reported casualties and damage, and admitted that a number of facilities had been hit. Reciprocal attacks between Iran and Israel are ongoing.
On June 19, Benham Saeidi, member of the Iranian parliamentary committee on national security and foreign policy, said that Tehran was considering the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz in response to the actions of the country's enemies. Up to 30% of global LNG supplies and up to 20% of global oil and oil products exports currently pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian authorities have repeatedly warned that they could restrict navigation in the Strait of Hormuz in case of a threat to national security.