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Russian gas demand to return to record level in 2026 — IEA

The agency predicts that industrial gas demand could increase by 10% between 2022 and 2026, accounting for a third of total demand growth

MOSCOW, October 10. /TASS/. Russian gas demand can grow by 6% by 2026 and return to record levels, according to the medium-term gas market report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In 2021, demand for natural gas in Russia reached an all-time high of 516 billion cubic meters, and decreased by 5.5% in 2022.

"Russia’s natural gas demand is expected to remain broadly flat in 2023, as higher gas burn in the power sector is offset by the continued reduction in gas use in the industrial and transport sectors. Gas demand is projected to return to growth in 2024 and expand by 6% (or close to 30 bcm) between 2022 and 2026, largely supported by the industrial and power sectors," the agency says.

According to the agency’s calculations, gas demand in Russia in 2026 will reach 517 bln cubic meters.

Industrial gas demand could increase by 10% (or more than 10 billion cubic meters) between 2022 and 2026, accounting for a third of total demand growth, the IEA predicts. However, about 60% of industrial demand growth will come from the recovery from the sharp contraction in 2022. It is also expected that the increase in gas demand will be driven by increased fertilizer production, primarily by increased ammonia production.

Demand for natural gas from the Russian energy sector will grow by an average of less than 1% per year during 2022-2026, in the residential and commercial sectors by 1.5% per year "largely supported by the gasification program carried out by Gazprom", and in transport sector it will grow by 10 % (or 3.5 billion cubic meters) during 2022-2026.

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