MOSCOW, July 9. /TASS/. Israeli and US aggressive actions towards Iran’s nuclear program may prompt Tehran to consider developing nuclear weapons as a deterrence against external threats, Iranian studies expert, researcher at the Institute of International Studies within the Russian Foreign Ministry’s MGIMO University Adlan Margoyev told TASS on Wednesday.
"The threats by Israel and the United States and the strikes on the nuclear infrastructure push Tehran towards considering the possibility of creating nuclear weapons as a means of national security. Even after the cessation of active combat operations, the threat to the security of the Islamic Republic has not vanished: the war may restart at any moment," the expert pointed out.
However, "such measures may cross out the prospects of lifting sanctions - a key goal of the incumbent government - and that is why the Iranian leadership probably takes into account the economic consequences of this step in its discussions around the potential possession of nuclear weapons," he said.
"Even with a political decision to create a nuclear arsenal, it will be extremely difficult to implement this project unobtrusively for foreign intelligence services. The absence of inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) facilitates this task but the capabilities of Israeli and American special services throw into doubt the ability of the concealed development of the nuclear program’s military component. This may trigger a new wave of escalation but of a larger magnitude," Margoyev said.
As the expert pointed out, "the doctrinal-ethical aspect of the issue also remains an important factor." "Even possessing nuclear weapons, Iran would hardly be able to use them, without jeopardizing the Palestinian population, which Tehran traditionally supports. A fatwa - a religious decree by the supreme leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] - has been in effect in Iran since 2003 and it prohibits the development, production, storage and use of weapons of mass destruction because inevitable and indiscriminate losses among civilians contradict the rules of warfare prescribed by the Islamic teaching," the expert emphasized.
"In such conditions, if Tehran comes into the possession of nuclear weapons, Israel may refrain from a direct large-scale aggression against it but will continue subversive acts on Iranian territory, being aware that its actions will not entail a retaliatory nuclear strike. Over the 22 years since the crisis broke out around the Iran nuclear program, Tehran has proved its resolve. However, if the last chance for a political settlement of the conflict is abandoned and there is a return to the military scenario, Iran’s supreme leader will have no rational arguments left against creating nuclear weapons," Margoyev said.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in an interview with US journalist Tucker Carlson that Tehran was not interested in creating nuclear weapons.