MOSCOW, December 10. /TASS/. Europe and the United States are increasingly at odds over the Ukraine peace process; Donald Trump insists on elections in Ukraine; and EU countries are sharply divided over whether and how to use frozen Russian assets to fund Kiev. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: European pushback on US peace proposal heightens tensions among Kiev's allies
A rift between Ukraine’s allies – the United States on one side and Europe on the other – has grown markedly wider. Kiev and Brussels have effectively spurned the key provision of the US peace plan, declaring that Ukraine will not agree to territorial concessions, and are now preparing their own version of the document for Washington. Meanwhile, Europeans are clearly seeking to stall any settlement, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia.
Europe is not striving for any kind of peace, Director of the Department of European Cooperation at the Russian Foreign Ministry Vladislav Maslennikov told Izvestia. "They are plainly pursuing the goal of dragging out the settlement. This has long been evident to everyone," he said.
This realization is gradually reaching the United States as well. Washington has come to understand what the Zelensky regime represents and what Europeans truly seek, First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Vladimir Dzhabarov told Izvestia.
"Europeans want, under the cover of the Americans, to inflict a strategic defeat on us at any cost. But Trump is categorically opposed to this, because in addition to the high costs of supporting the Ukrainians in this confrontation, a powerful wave of instability is emerging. It seems to me that the Americans have understood this, and they too have become deeply disappointed in Europe," he said.
At the same time, the EU is still searching for funds to support Kiev. The bloc’s member states are close to approving a decision on frozen Russian assets by qualified majority. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Izvestia that this would entail serious consequences for the countries involved, as well as for legal entities and individuals.
Washington will continue to press Brussels on reaching a peace agreement for Ukraine, Dmitry Novikov, Head of the Laboratory of Political Geography and Contemporary Geopolitics at the Higher School of Economics told the newspaper.
"On one side, there is military pressure from Russia; on the other, political pressure from the United States. Europe cannot confront both simultaneously. The EU must provide Ukraine with military assistance to contain Russia’s military pressure, and economic assistance to contain US political pressure. Europe simply does not have such capacity at present," the expert said.
Vedomosti: Trump’s call for Ukrainian elections fuels speculation about possible leadership change
It is time for Ukraine to hold elections, US President Donald Trump said in an interview with Politico published on December 9. In the same interview, the American president once again stressed that Russia continues to maintain the initiative on the battlefield. Trump also did not spare his European allies, noting that they are failing to cope with many issues and are not pursuing the right course when it comes to the Ukrainian settlement, Vedomosti writes.
Trump wants by all possible means to push Vladimir Zelensky toward concessions in the settlement process, Pavel Koshkin, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences told Vedomosti. The expert explained that the current statements about elections are a logical extension of Trump’s recent comments expressing dissatisfaction that Zelensky had not reviewed the US package of proposals for a settlement. But this is not the only factor.
"Trump understands that the ambiguity surrounding Zelensky’s legal status creates a range of challenges for negotiations, and therefore wants to resolve this issue somehow," Koshkin said.
He noted that Trump would accept the election victory of either Zelensky or any other Ukrainian politician, because for him the paramount goal is to secure negotiations on terms he considers fitting.
Trump’s remarks on elections amount to a "black mark" for Zelensky from the American president, political scientist and US specialist Malek Dudakov told the newspaper. As the US sees it, Ukraine’s refusal to hold elections effectively turns it into an autocracy, which harms its international image, the expert stressed. In this regard, Dudakov does not rule out that the Americans may seek to replace Zelensky.
At the same time, the expert noted that, given Zelensky’s and his circle’s apparent unwillingness to relinquish power, the conflict between them and Trump will only intensify.
Izvestia: Russian assets become Europe’s most contentious agenda item
Governments in the Nordic European countries are increasingly concerned that they are allocating far more financial assistance to the Ukrainian side than other partners, Izvestia writes. The leaders of seven EU member states have already sent a letter to Ursula von der Leyen urging her to accelerate the decision-making process on the so-called "reparation loan" funded by Russian assets – a mechanism that has been widely highlighted in recent media reports.
Northern European governments are growing irritated by the fact that they are providing Ukraine with more support than other EU countries, The Economist reported. The publication also noted that last week Berlin provided Kiev with around €100 mln to revive its energy infrastructure, while the Dutch authorities added another €250 mln for arms procurement.
The article further stated that the question of the EU’s use of Russian assets has become the main test of Europe’s resolve. According to The Economist, the confiscation of these funds could trigger a deep internal rift within the bloc. A decision on whether to use these assets – and, as the publication noted, whether to approve the proposal – will be made at the European Council summit scheduled for December 18.
Maria Khorolskaya, Candidate of Political Sciences and Research Fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Izvestia that on the one hand, Berlin understands that Ukraine’s economy is virtually unsustainable without its support, but on the other, it is becoming increasingly worried about the shift in US President Donald Trump’s stance on the matter.
"German political elites understand that without external financing, Ukraine will struggle to maintain basic functionality. At present, Germany is particularly concerned because of the evolving US position on assistance to Ukraine," the expert explained.
Pavel Timofeev, Head of the Section for Regional Problems and Conflicts at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Izvestia that President Emmanuel Macron’s government does not want the discussion of loans for Ukraine to focus specifically on the Russian funds held in France. This reluctance, he said, stems from two factors: reputational and economic.
"First, Macron understands that the reputational risks of such an operation are extremely high. <…> Second, Paris is concerned about the French economy, which is experiencing a difficult period and requires assurances of stability for investors and bank depositors," the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: Trump’s 'Board of Peace' initiative hits resistance over Gaza role
Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair has been removed from the list of prospective members of US President Donald Trump’s not-yet-established "Board of Peace’" for administering the Gaza Strip, following objections raised by Arab and Muslim states. The board is expected to be created during the second stage of the ceasefire to oversee an independent technocratic government in the enclave – one without participation from the Hamas Islamist movement – that likewise still needs to be formed. The composition, clearly defined functions, and structure of these new bodies remain unclear. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti argue that the board is unlikely to succeed in Gaza without a durable ceasefire and is set to face profound legitimacy challenges among Palestinians.
Trump announced that the peace process in Gaza would move into its next phase by the end of December, Axios reported.
Despite being excluded from the list of contenders, Blair may still retain a role in future administrative structures for Gaza, including on an executive committee alongside Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, US envoy Steve Witkoff, and senior officials from Arab and Western countries, a source told the Financial Times.
Although Blair has a poor reputation among the populations of Arab states, he has extensive experience in Middle Eastern affairs and a deep understanding of regional dynamics, Kamran Hasanov, political scientist at the University of Salzburg, told Vedomosti. Moreover, the expert continued, the former prime minister maintains close contacts with Trump’s Middle East advisers as well as with the governments of wealthy Arab monarchies, which is why Trump initially put Blair forward for the board.
The prospects for the board in Gaza are uncertain, Hasanov believes. First, before it can be launched, the region must achieve at least a durable ceasefire backed by a mechanism for monitoring compliance – something that currently does not exist. Second, Palestinians are unlikely to accept an external governing authority over themselves in its proposed form. Moreover, from its earliest days, the board risks facing a serious crisis of legitimacy among the local population, making it highly challenging for it to operate effectively, the expert stressed.
Kommersant: Rosneft-Shell joint venture cleared to exit CPC stake
Russian President Vladimir Putin has authorized the joint venture between Rosneft and Shell to conduct transactions involving its stake in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). The decision paves the way for the JV’s potential withdrawal from the project, although any such operations will remain contingent on the positions of the United States, Kazakhstan, and Western shareholders. Experts interviewed by Kommersant suggest that Kazakhstan may have pressed for the JV’s exit from CPC’s shareholder structure out of concern that 80% of its oil exports could be disrupted.
At the end of October, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, restricting their subsidiaries in which they directly or indirectly own more than 50%. In November, the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a general license authorizing certain operations related to the CPC, though not the sale or transfer of equity stakes in the consortium.
According to Shell’s latest report and Rosneft’s earlier disclosures, the partners hold 49% and 51% of the joint venture, respectively. Because Rosneft continues to control the JV, it is classified under OFAC rules as a subsidiary of a sanctioned entity, meaning that transactions with it are prohibited without an OFAC license, Natalia Strelkova, consultant at the law firm Kamenskaya & Partners, told Kommersant. Senior attorney Ekaterina Tumanova from Kulkov, Kolotilov & Partners believes that US government approval may be required – something she considers "quite likely from a political viewpoint."
The presidential decree primarily creates a legal path for Shell to exit the project without being constrained by Russian domestic restrictions, managing partner at Kasatkin Consulting Dmitry Kasatkin noted.
According to analyst Natalia Milchakova, Kazakh authorities may have asked the JV to withdraw from CPC’s capital structure out of fear that the pipeline could fall under secondary sanctions, effectively halting 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports. She did not rule out that the deal may have been discussed by the presidents of Russia and Kazakhstan during the latter’s recent visit to Moscow.
Losing a stake in the CPC is strategically painful but not financially crippling for Rosneft, head of the analytical department at investment company Rikom-Trust Oleg Abelev believes.
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