MOSCOW, December 9. /TASS/. Europe seeks to bring US peace plan talks to a dead end; fighting resurges between Thailand and Cambodia; and the US is paving the way for a color revolution in Venezuela. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Europe seeks to push US peace plan talks to a dead end
A meeting between Vladimir Zelensky and the leaders of the UK, Germany and France has taken place in London. The Europeans and Kiev aim to try to once again convince US President Donald Trump that Russia allegedly does not want peace, said experts interviewed by Izvestia.
European countries keep trying to secure a role in resolving the Ukraine crisis. The US has for several weeks been promoting its plan to end the conflict, holding separate meetings with Ukrainian and Russian officials.
Moscow does not rule out that the option proposed by the Trump administration could serve as the foundation for agreements. However, the Europeans are working to bring negotiations on the US peace plan to a standstill, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik noted. According to him, Europe seeks to put the blame on Russia for undermining the peace process, while "it is the Europeans and Ukraine that are the main opponents of peacemaking efforts as this situational group is working to effectively derail the search for a peaceful solution," he explained.
"This is an attempt to recreate what happened in August this year after the meeting between Putin and Trump in Anchorage. Zelensky and his support team immediately sought to persuade Trump once again, or at least fine-tune his approach," says Valdai Club expert Andrey Kortunov. "Ukraine and its partners aim to once again shift the focus onto Moscow – to ensure that the dominant view in the United States is that Moscow does not want peace and that Russia’s stance remains uncompromising. And that, in turn, means that achieving peace would require increasing economic pressure on Moscow, something Zelensky consistently advocates."
The Trump administration has a plan B, Vadim Kozlov, head of the Internal Policy Department at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Vedomosti. The plan includes a freezing of weapons sales through NATO and a suspension of intelligence exchange, which, in Trump’s view, may coerce Zelensky to make concessions. However, Trump would only be able to exert full pressure if the Europeans agree with the already developed plan to end the conflict and also threaten to abandon support for Zelensky’s office.
Media: Fighting reignites between Thailand, Cambodia
Fighting on the border between Thailand and Cambodia has led to the biggest escalation of violence in months. The parties are blaming each other for violating the ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump, Izvestia notes.
The unresolved border issue and the domestic situations in the two countries remain the key reasons behind the renewed military actions, Dmitry Mosyakov, head of the Center for the Study of Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, believes. Both Thailand and Cambodia often use the border conflict as a tool to ensure national consolidation during internal crises. According to Mosyakov, a complicated political struggle is underway in Thailand where the Pheu Thai Party has been removed from power and more conservative forces are taking the lead, planning to hold elections. In such a situation, it’s crucial for the authorities to show determination, Mosyakov noted.
Meanwhile, the military seeks to make sure a tough policy remains in place regarding the border issue because an escalation of tensions makes it possible for the army to expand its influence, said Grigory Kucherenko, junior researcher with the Sector of New Challenges in South and Southeast Asia at the Center of the Indo-Pacific Region at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations.
Chances are high that Washington will make a comeback as a mediator, the expert said. In his view, the US president may soon be expected to make public statements and try to put pressure on the parties to the conflict. However, the analyst points out that Thailand has already announced the closure of negotiation channels with external actors.
According to Mosyakov, the current tensions can last a while because political changes in Thailand are going to take time. As a result, the border conflict will continue to serve as a useful tool for demonstrating a patriotic agenda and resolve to confront a strong opposition.
Yelena Fomichyova, senior researcher with the Center of Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that in such a situation, anything at all could trigger another round of tensions. "When the parties are engaged in an ideological, political or military confrontation, the overall situation remains tense, and the actual reason does not matter," the expert stressed.
Izvestia: US paving way for color revolution in Venezuela
Bogus stories that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro will allegedly soon step down are fueling color revolution-style claims, a spokesperson for the Russian Embassy in Caracas told Izvestia. Meanwhile, the US carried out strikes on at least 23 vessels in the Caribbean Sea in the past three months, killing at least 87 people. The White House insists that the boats were carrying drugs from Venezuela, while Caracas sees it as a threat to the country’s sovereignty.
Caracas has a similar assessment of reports alleging that Maduro could resign in exchange for Washington’s promise not to launch a land operation against drug cartels. The United States does not recognize the outcome of Venezuela’s presidential election and is highly interested in replacing the president with a political figure that would be more willing to cooperate.
"The Venezuelans see such bogus stories by Western sources as part of a ‘psychological war.’ This is about attempts to escalate the situation around Venezuela and spread color revolution-style narratives that pose a threat to the domestic order," a spokesperson for the Russian Embassy in Caracas stated.
Donald Trump has for several weeks been threatening that the US will move from attacks on ships to a land operation. However, members of his own party are concerned that strikes on Venezuela could have a negative impact on the outcome of next year’s congressional elections. Republicans currently control both houses but their prospects of retaining control shrink with every tough decision Trump makes.
The White House has so far been unable to sell the idea of a military operation to the public as polls show that over 70% of Americans oppose the idea, Latin America expert Timur Almukov pointed out. According to him, claims that the boats the Pentagon is targeting in the Caribbean carry fentanyl aren’t helping. This drug has really proven deadly for the US but Venezuela neither produces it nor is involved in its transportation.
The expert went on to say that the result of a potential operation is impossible to predict. Even the June strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which did not have any major impact on the US, prompted pushback from prominent figures in the MAGA movement. "Trump came to power on promises to end wars instead of starting them. Any operation in Venezuela lasting a considerable amount of time would run completely counter to this narrative, especially because it’s not somewhere far away but actually really close to the US," the analyst emphasized.
Vedomosti: Hamas ready to disarm if Israel launches creation of Palestinian state
The radical Palestinian movement Hamas is prepared to lay down its weapons if Israel launches a political process leading to the creation of an independent Palestinian state, Basem Naim, a member of the movement’s political bureau, said. Until recently, Hamas was reluctant to even discuss the disarmament issue while it is one of the main conditions under the peace plan that US President Donald Trump proposed in October, Vedomosti writes.
Hamas commanders stationed in the Gaza Strip don't always share the position of political bureau members, Ivan Bocharov, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council, points out. "The movement’s leadership may well announce disarmament but some commanders on the ground could undermine the decision. According to some estimates, the number of armed militants stands at 15,000," the expert specified.
The conditions to end the conflict that Hamas and the mediators have put forward are hardly acceptable for Israel, Lyudmila Samarskaya, researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, believes. In her opinion, the Islamists almost certainly will take advantage of any transitional period in order to strengthen their combat capabilities.
"The new conditions aren’t much different from the previous ceasefire deals that followed periods of escalation, and agreeing to them would actually mean a return to the previous status quo with occasional flare-ups of violence. The longer the ceasefire lasts, the more difficult it will be to disarm Palestinian radicals," Samarskaya said.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced plans to discuss the implementation of the second phase of the Gaza deal with Trump, which particularly provides for the deployment of international security forces to the region.
A formal transition to the second phase of the peace process is possible but its actual implementation is doubtful, Samarskaya notes. At this point, it is more likely that the new status quo will be preserved, with Israeli presence along the Gaza perimeter between the enclave’s border and the so-called "yellow line," the political scientist explained.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Russia continues to take competitive advantage of oil discount
Russia’s oil discount from the Brent benchmark price has reached the highest level in two and a half years, exceeding $20 per barrel for Urals crude. Meanwhile, in November, the average Urals price fell to the lowest since December 2020, when the market was recovering from the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
The reason behind the price drop is that global oil prices remain relatively low, while the recent US sanctions, which hit Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, are now what is driving the oil discount even further.
According to Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, the discount has most likely already reached its peak. There is no more talk about India abandoning Russian energy imports, and work is underway for ways to solve the problem. The market’s reaction to such signals will include a decline in discounts. However, financial and logistics issues need to be resolved in order to overcome sanctions risks, which will take at least several months, the expert added. Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko, in turn, says that as the market adapts to the sanctions, the Russian oil discount will decrease the way it has happened many times before.
Dudchenko does not rule out the possibility of new sanctions, even though the US is sending clear messages about the need to build relations and ensure de-escalation. The expert also expects that oil prices will decline next year compared to 2025, but the discount will also go down.
Andrianov sees no prospects for a rise in oil prices in 2026 and also expects them to fall, the only question being at what pace the process will unfold. Excess supplies will increase competition between exporters, so the oil discount will remain an important competitive advantage for Russia. Meanwhile, the discount rate will rather depend on how quickly sanctions barriers are overcome than on global prices.
Still, new global black swan events – that is, hardly predictable developments – cannot be ruled out, such as another round of tensions in the Middle East. This could lead both to a rise in oil prices and a decline in the Russian oil discount, the expert concluded.
TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews