MOSCOW, December 15. /TASS/. Nornickel expects the global nickel market to remain in surplus in 2025-2026 at a level of around 200,000 tons, according to the company’s global metals market outlook.
"The global nickel market is expected to remain in surplus at more than 200,000 tons of Ni in both 2025 and 2026. The 2026 estimate already incorporates an adjustment for potential disruptions, taking into account production risks and regulatory restrictions in Indonesia," the statement said.
In the absence of such disruptions, the surplus could increase to an even higher level, the company emphasized.
Nornickel recalled that the global nickel market has been in surplus for the fourth consecutive year. The company attributes this imbalance not to weak demand — which, on the contrary, continues to grow steadily — but to an overly rapid increase in supply amid rising production in Indonesia.
According to the company’s estimates, global demand for nickel will grow by 6% to 3.62 mln tons in 2025 and by another 6% to 3.83 mln tons in 2026. At the same time, global nickel production is projected to increase by 6% to 3.86 mln tons in 2025 and by a further 6% to 4.1 mln tons in 2026. More than 66% of global output will be accounted for by Indonesian stock.
Since August, the Indonesian government has been taking steps to curb excess supply and improve governance of the industry. In particular, licensing oversight has been tightened and mining quotas adjusted. Nornickel described these measures as a positive signal in the medium to long term, while noting that their impact remains limited in the short term.
Going forward, the company views stainless steel production as the main driver of nickel demand growth, with additional support expected from other sectors.
"However, this growth in demand is insufficient to offset the continued expansion of supply driven by Indonesia. In effect, only Indonesia — by consistently restraining production and pursuing policies aimed at increasing value added in the nickel industry — can bring the nickel market closer to balance," Nornickel added.