MOSCOW, December 12. /TASS/. NATO is increasingly divided over Ukraine’s accession; the conflict between the US and Venezuela intensifies; and the prices of non-ferrous metals keep rising. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: NATO increasingly divided over Ukraine’s status
Moscow and Washington have reached an understanding on the need to secure Ukraine’s neutrality, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said. However, not all NATO members agree with that: the UK is confident that Ukraine’s accession to NATO is inevitable, a parliamentary source told Izvestia. Analysts believe that Kiev’s strategy is to prolong negotiations.
The European Union and NATO have found themselves in a critical situation where they have to make reasonable compromises, Grigory Karasin, head of the Russian Federation Council (upper house of parliament) Foreign Affairs Committee, told Izvestia. According to him, Moscow will keep on working to ensure Ukraine’s stable non-bloc status, which will serve as a guarantee from reckless actions.
The US is not ready to allow Ukraine into NATO, both because of the military conflict on the country’s territory and its corruption problems. However, Russia should have no illusions — this is the course that the current Washington administration pursues. The next presidents may well try to adopt the policy of George W. Bush, who sought to drag Kiev into the alliance by hook or by crook, Diplomatic Academy Vice Principal Oleg Karpovich pointed out.
"This is why we need to legally formalize NATO’s departure from expansion plans. It’s not just about Ukraine but also about other countries the West could lay eyes on, including Moldova, Georgia, and Armenia," the expert stressed. Karpovich believes the only way Russia can guarantee such an outcome is to achieve all goals of its special military operation. In Ukraine’s case, this requires the country’s complete demilitarization and denazification.
The West cannot be expected to come up with a common settlement plan at this point as even EU nations see differently on the extent to which Ukraine should be supported and what the EU’s mission is in this regard, Ivan Loshkaryov, associate professor with the Department of Political Theory at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, observed. The expert believes that Ukraine’s strategy is to prolong talks. Kiev has suggested discussing four documents instead of one. Ukraine still hopes to hold out until the US midterm congressional elections, where Democrats could win, significantly reducing the chances for the implementation of Donald Trump’s peace initiatives.
Izvestia: US-Venezuela conflict reaches new level of escalation
The conflict between Washington and Caracas has reached a new level of escalation. US President Donald Trump announced the seizure of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. The Latin American nation’s Foreign Ministry slammed the incident as an act of international piracy, Izvestia writes.
This marks a new spike in tensions between the United States and Venezuela. Earlier, Trump declared war on Latin American drug cartels, and US naval forces were deployed to the Caribbean to curb drug trafficking.
The tanker seizure sent oil prices slightly up, but a surge in prices looks unlikely, said Andrey Smirnov, stock market expert at BCS World of Investment. "Venezuelan oil had already been sanctioned, and the overall tensions had been mounting for months, so the move was not unexpected and won’t be critical. Besides, other vendors are capable of offsetting Venezuelan exports, even considering the shadow supplies," the expert stressed.
Political scientist Andrey Kortunov does not rule out that the conflict will expand, especially since the first strikes appear to have failed to bring the results the US administration expected. "US goals clearly go far beyond the fight against drug trafficking. In fact, it’s an attempt to ensure political changes in the country. Apparently, Washington believes that the foundation of Nicolas Maduro’s rule is very fragile, and the balance can be disrupted if certain pressure is exerted. That said, the risk of further escalation persists," the expert noted.
Kortunov added, however, that a land operation was unlikely, while the conflict could follow the scenario the US had already implemented in the Middle East, conducting missile strikes on Iran, Yemen, and Syria.
As for the prospects of the Maduro government’s overthrow, Trump is set to face obstacles because the Venezuelan president still has support inside the country. Besides, the factor of Russia and China is also there, the political scientist went on to say. For China, the key priority is to protect its investment in Venezuela. Russia will also hardly stand aside, so defense cooperation between Moscow and Caracas can be expected to grow. These factors won’t be crucial, but they are enough to ensure that the US and its allies won’t be able to fully isolate Venezuela.
Kommersant: Non-ferrous metals keep getting pricier
The prices of all main non-ferrous metals rose in November, with nickel being the only exception. Nickel prices went down as supply outpaces demand on the global market. On the non-ferrous metals market, all eyes are currently on copper, gold, platinum, and silver, Kommersant notes.
The prices of these metals surged in the past two months based on several factors. These include a decline in output due to mining issues, the depletion of easily available reserves, and the costs of new capacities. Besides, demand is growing faster than supplies, and investors take an increasing interest in the metals amid global economic risks and the possibility of new restrictive measures.
This is what has created excessive demand and caused prices to reach either all-time highs or levels that have not been seen in a while, said Natalya Velichko, head of practical work with mining and steel enterprise at Kept.
"Given current macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, as well as trade tensions and supply disruptions, copper prices are most likely to exceed the $10,000 per one metric ton level in the coming year. Some analysts believe that they can even grow to $15,000, especially if the US eventually imposes tariffs on cathode copper. If these market concerns grow, metal flows may largely be redirected to the US market, creating supply shortages on other markets, which was briefly observed this summer. Any difficulties at major mines could lead to an additional decline in supply on the market and send prices higher," the expert explained.
Macroeconomic factors such as the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing create an inflation background on commodity markets, which could support prices, Maxim Shaposhnikov, manager at the Industrial Code fund, added.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Turkey continues efforts to create gas hub
Turkey continues efforts to create a full-fledged gas hub on its soil. While doing so, Ankara is pushing Russia to increase gas discounts, Rossiyskaya Gazeta reports.
Turkey’s state-owned Botas company has recently expanded its contract with Russia’s gas giant Gazprom for just one year, which could be seen as a short-sighted step by Ankara, had it not been for the Turkish energy minister’s remark that the prices of Russian supplies, which do not suit his country, are the reason behind such a short-term agreement.
Turkey needs discounts not only to provide cheap gas to the domestic market. The European Union plans to fully abandon Russian gas imports starting in 2027, but if gas comes from Turkey, no problems are expected.
It is no wonder that Ankara is so interested in the idea of a Turkish gas hub, initially put forward by Russia. The country’s geographical position and infrastructure capacities make it possible for Turkey to receive gas from various directions and export it to Europe. However, it’s not that beneficial to be a transit country. It’s much better to be a hub, that is, a virtual trading point where gas pipelines from various countries meet and from where direct supplies to Europe can be delivered.
According to Maxim Malkov, head of Kept’s services practice targeting oil and gas companies, Turkey aspires to be the gas transit hub of the Eastern Mediterranean. Liquefied natural gas purchases allow it to diversify supplies and ensure better pricing. In such a situation, the move to extend a contract with Russian suppliers for just one year reflects the overall uncertainty in energy markets and, apparently, plans to revise contract terms as the geopolitical situation unfolds.
Meanwhile, Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, points out that Turkey is one of the few remaining directions of Russian pipeline gas supplies, along with China. Short-term contracts are a kind of pressure mechanism amid restrictions on Russia’s export capabilities. As restrictions continue to grow, pressure is also rising, the expert noted.
Media: EU country detains Russian researcher far from politics at Ukraine’s request
Officers from Poland’s Internal Security Agency detained Alexander Butyagin, a Russian archeologist and employee of the State Hermitage Museum, at the request of Ukrainian law enforcement agencies. Butyagin came to Poland on his way from the Netherlands to the Balkans while on a lecturing tour. According to investigators, Butyagin’s detention was based on his role as the leader of excavations in the city of Kerch after Crimea’s 2014 reunification with Russia, conducted without Ukrainian permission, Vedomosti writes.
The Polish authorities' move to detain Butyagin is an act of arbitrariness and political provocation, aimed at raising further tensions between Russia and Poland, Ivan Skorikov, head of the Ukraine Department at the Institute of CIS Studies, observed. However, even though Poland violated international law, Moscow has no plans to respond "to lawlessness with lawlessness," so similar detentions of foreign nationals in Russia are out of the question, the expert added. Sanctions on Polish officials could be imposed as a measure of retaliation, the political scientists noted.
The Butyagin incident is a deliberate provocation, Dmitry Bunevich, advisor to the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, agrees. Warsaw seeks to use the Russian archeologist’s detention as leverage against Moscow. However, the Russian authorities are unlikely to give a tit-for-tat response, obstructing the work of Polish researchers in Russia, and only those who commit unlawful acts risk being detained, the political scientist pointed out.
Unsurprisingly, Butyagin’s colleagues were outraged by the situation. Vladimir Kuznetsov, head of the Phanagorian expedition of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Archeology, told Kommersant that Butyagin had always scrupulously followed the rules for archaeological research. When Crimea was part of Ukraine, he received permissions from the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture, and after Crimea rejoined Russia in 2014, permissions were issued by the Russian Ministry of Culture. "For the Ukrainian authorities, it’s a political issue as they seek to demonstrate who owns Crimea," the researcher said.
Kuznetsov believes that Russia needs to give "a tough response" to Alexander Butyagin’s detention, because "otherwise, all our specialists working in Crimea will also risk being detained when traveling to countries such as Poland."
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