MOSCOW, December 29. /TASS/. The current round of the Florida talks may bring closer the end of the Ukrainian conflict; the Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire agreement leaves scope for renewed tensions; and the global economy may see moderate growth in 2026. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Can Florida talks bring Ukrainian conflict closer to settlement?
Moscow, Washington, and Kiev are now considerably closer to reaching an agreement on settling the conflict in Ukraine than ever before, US President Donald Trump said at a press conference after talks with Vladimir Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago estate. Ukraine should agree to a deal to settle the crisis now to avoid losing even more territory, the US leader added. Prior to meeting with Zelensky, Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Speaking to reporters, he did not rule out reaching an agreement on settling the conflict in a few weeks, but also admitted that this might not happen.
"Trump is eager to conclude a peace deal that he considers suitable for Ukraine today, especially since Kiev's position can only worsen, forcing it to negotiate with Moscow on new terms," Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics analyst Tigran Meloyan said.
At the same time, Moscow does not see any real willingness on the part of Kiev and its European allies to engage in constructive negotiations.
For Ukraine, the most sensitive issue remains the matter of territory. Last Wednesday, Zelensky presented an updated peace plan to end the fighting. After discussions with the US, the plan reportedly contains only 20 points. This version differs significantly from the one Russia and the US had been working on since early December.
"If these 20 points align with President Trump's vision, it will deviate from the agreements made in Anchorage at the Russian-American summit. Let's hope that President Trump's position stays consistent with the approaches agreed upon with President Putin in Anchorage," Russian Federation Council Deputy Speaker Konstantin Kosachev told Izvestia.
Meanwhile, in the West, there is a growing understanding that Donald Trump may be the most credible candidate to mediate the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. "In the four-way diplomatic relationship involving Russia, the US, Europe, and Ukraine, the Americans are showing the greatest desire for the immediate formal signing of a peace agreement. In the name of his reputation as the world's chief peacemaker, Donald Trump is ready to sign a formal, theoretical, and short-term peace agreement instead of a real, practical, and long-term one," American studies expert Yegor Toropov noted.
The Trump administration is indeed acknowledging the progress Russia has made toward a peaceful settlement since the talks in Alaska. However, it is also aware that it cannot allow Ukraine to surrender entirely, as this could erode trust in the US and its standing in the world, Tigran Meloyan pointed out. According to him, Trump will most likely continue to insist on achieving peace as soon as possible. This includes pressuring Zelensky and his team, the weaker party, for example, by further exposing the corruption scandal in Ukraine.
Izvestia: Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire agreement leaves risk of renewed tensions
Despite the recently reached ceasefire, renewed tensions remain a possibility along the Thailand-Cambodia border. Further provocations cannot be ruled out since the parties have no specific obligations in the event of a breach of the agreement. The main issue remains the border's delimitation. On December 27, Bangkok and Phnom Penh agreed to a 72-hour ceasefire following several days of intense negotiations. ASEAN will monitor compliance with the ceasefire. China is also rejoining the settlement process. The US has only welcomed the parties' decision thus far.
"The agreement establishes a framework for a lasting settlement, including an immediate ceasefire with a defined timeframe, the implementation of an independent verification mechanism overseen by ASEAN, the connection of military de-escalation with humanitarian concerns such as the return of civilians and prisoners of war, and the distinction between immediate security measures and long-term border demarcation. Permanent coordination centers and direct lines of communication at the highest level reduce the risks of accidental escalation," Yelena Pyltsina, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Science’ Center for Vietnam and ASEAN Studies, noted, adding that there is still no certainty that the parties will be able to reach concrete agreements, especially after so many failed attempts.
It is noteworthy that the new agreement does not contain specific and enforceable obligations for the parties in the event of a breach of the agreements, which leaves the mechanisms of accountability quite vague, Pyltsina told Izvestia. Moreover, the agreements do not address the root cause of the conflict: the territorial issue of unresolved border demarcation.
"The success of the agreement depends not on its signing, but on its conscientious implementation, especially in terms of refraining from provocations and advancing the delimitation process," the expert pointed out. "Within each country, influential groups (military, nationalist) can use border tensions as a tool for political mobilization to obtain budget funds or control over illegal economic flows. Against this backdrop, the risk of a new escalation is significant. Peace will depend on the Thai and Cambodian governments' ability to resist this internal pressure and on ASEAN's effectiveness as a guarantor," Pyltsina emphasized.
"It will either turn into a kind of cold war or there will be another alliance agreement. For example, as part of the next ceasefire, it will again be forbidden to bring reinforcements to existing troops," Grigory Kucherenko, junior researcher in the New Challenges in South and Southeast Asia sector at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, pointed out. "If one side wants to violate the ceasefire, they can simply accuse the other of bringing in additional troops," he emphasized.
In any case, experts are confident that until the territorial issue is resolved, the risk of another escalation persists.
Vedomosti: Why Israel recognized Somaliland's independence
The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on December 29 to condemn Israel's recognition of the self-proclaimed Somaliland. Tel Aviv's declaration recognizing the separatist African republic as an independent and sovereign state came on December 26, just days before Somalia was set to assume the presidency of the UN Security Council. As a result, Israel is currently the only member of the international community with diplomatic relations with Hargeisa, the administrative center of Somaliland.
Israel recognized Somaliland because of the self-proclaimed republic's strategic location off the coast of the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Kamran Hasanov, a doctor of political science at the University of Salzburg, told Vedomosti. On the one hand, Israeli servicemen want access to territory from which they could exert military pressure on the Yemeni Houthi armed groups that have periodically launched rocket attacks on Israel since 2023. On the other hand, the Israeli leadership is pursuing steps in the Horn of Africa to curb Turkey's rapid growth in influence in the region. "As a result, Israel has opened another front in the Turkish-Israeli confrontation in Somalia," the expert pointed out.
Israel's establishment of diplomatic relations with Somaliland represents a continuation of its policy of deepening existing ties between the two states, Lyudmila Samarskaya, a research fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences' World Economy and International Relations Institute, noted. She noted that this step is also intended to broaden the Abraham Accords, which the Israeli authorities could interpret as a political success given the lack of tangible results on the Arab track.
Somalia effectively broke up into several parts in the early 1990s, and a number of regional states are trying to take advantage of this. However, other countries are unlikely to follow Israel's example, Gasanov emphasized. "This recognition is more in line with the strategic vision of [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu and his cabinet in the context of Israel's struggle with its geopolitical opponents," the expert noted.
At the same time, Samarskaya did not rule out further recognition of Somaliland by other members of the international community, as similar discussions have been covered in the Western press before. In a sense, Israel's decision was a tentative step, the political scientist concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Japan raises defense budget to record high
The Japanese cabinet approved a military spending plan for 2026 that surpasses nine trillion yen ($58 billion). Tokyo aims to bolster its ability to retaliate against a potential enemy by equipping its coastal defenses with cruise missiles and remotely controlled weapons. According to Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, this is the absolute minimum necessary to protect the country from external threats. However, China believes that Japan is on the course toward militarism and has suggested that Japan will develop nuclear weapons by 2028.
The AP news agency revealed the background of Tokyo's decision in its report. The increase in the military budget comes amid a crisis in relations with China caused by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's statement about the possibility of sending Japanese troops to aid Taiwan if Beijing attacks.
"Indeed, Japan currently views China as its main military threat. This is reflected in various doctrinal documents. First and foremost, Japan is concerned about China's activities in the East and South China Seas. In the East China Sea, China claims the Senkaku Islands (also known as the Diaoyu Islands) and frequently sends military ships and aircraft to the area. In the South China Sea, China claims 90% of the sea's surface area, builds artificial islands, and establishes military bases. However, most of Japan's energy resources and goods are delivered across these seas.
Therefore, Japan is strengthening its southern borders and the islands closer to Taiwan. Against this backdrop, Tokyo is discussing the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons. Japan is the only country to have been bombed with nuclear weapons and has officially adopted three principles: not to import, possess, or produce nuclear weapons. However, a recent report stated that an official close to the prime minister said these principles should be revisited," Valery Kistanov, head of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Chinese and Modern Asian Studies Institute, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
However, if a change in policy were to occur, public opinion would not approve, the expert noted. The prevailing opinion in Japan is that it should lead the fight for a world without nuclear weapons. In addition, Tokyo is aware that creating nuclear weapons would provoke a negative reaction from neighboring countries. Then, South Korea could acquire them as well. There would be a domino effect.
"But the main thing is that the US is not interested in Japan acquiring nuclear weapons. After all, this would mean leaving the American nuclear umbrella and turning Japan into an independent, uncontrollable power. The US is not interested in this, even though Japan has fissile material reserves and the necessary technology. If it wanted to, Japan could become a nuclear power in a matter of months," Kistanov concluded.
Vedomosti: Global economy may face moderate growth
Global GDP growth in 2026 is expected to range from 2.6% to 3.1%. Developing countries may begin to contribute more significantly to the global economy. India has promising prospects, and the US may also demonstrate substantial growth of 2%. However, economic momentum will remain weak in Europe.
The Americans maintain a strong position in the global economy, Adam Abdulatipov, senior analyst at the BCS World of Investments company, told Vedomosti. According to him, the dollar's status as a key reserve currency and the main means of international settlement gives the American financial system and the economy as a whole notable structural advantages. This allows the US to maintain flexible monetary conditions and market stability, even in the face of external shocks. US trade policy will continue to create uncertainty in global trade, but this factor's impact should not be overstated, Kirill Lysenko, analyst for sovereign and regional ratings at Expert RA, pointed out.
The complex domestic political situation in key EU countries and disagreements on a wide range of issues are hindering consensus-building and slowing economic growth, Valery Vaisberg, director of the analytical department at Region Investment Company, emphasized. At the same time, the expert believes that Europe has prospects for accelerating growth by moving closer to the UK.
Meanwhile, India may replace China as the main driver of global economic growth, Ksenya Bondarenko, associate professor at the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics, noted. India is confidently implementing a long-term economic program aimed at achieving developed economy status by its 2047 independence anniversary, Vaisberg stressed.
Abdulatipov opined that the transfer of production chains from China will continue to create opportunities for neighboring Southeast Asian countries. Vietnam and Malaysia, in particular, are strengthening their positions as manufacturing hubs, especially in electronics and industry. Indonesia, with its large domestic market and diversified economic structure, is less dependent on external shocks. The expert said that more developed economies in the region, such as Singapore and Taiwan, may face slower growth but remain fundamentally strong thanks to their roles in financial and technology chains.
According to Abdulatipov, export-oriented economies have potential in Latin America. Chile and Peru are important suppliers of copper and industrial metals, and Mexico benefits from the regionalization of world trade and its ties with the US. In turn, Vaisberg also sees potential for countries in the Middle East. He cites the possible end of Israel's military conflict and the normalization of operations at the Suez Canal as positive factors.
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