MOSCOW, March 6. /TASS/. NATO is unlikely to formally join US strikes against Iran due to internal divisions; the European Commission is moving toward a complete severing of economic ties with Russia; and the conflict in the Middle East may boost demand for Russian energy and commodities. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: NATO unlikely to join strikes on Iran as internal alliance divisions persist
The North Atlantic Alliance is unlikely to become involved in the conflict with Iran on the side of the United States due to internal disagreements, experts told Izvestia. At least five NATO member states have officially condemned the American and Israeli strikes. Unconditional support for Washington has been expressed only by Poland, the Baltic states, and the Czech Republic. The United Kingdom has been providing assistance with considerable reluctance, while France and Italy have focused on protecting Cyprus and Persian Gulf states. However, what the United States primarily requires is missiles for air defense systems and munitions overall. The urgent search for additional resources indicates that Washington did not anticipate such prolonged opposition from Tehran.
Political analyst Denis Denisov told Izvestia that the most likely scenario for NATO involvement would be the creation of an informal coalition around the United States and Israel. Official participation by the alliance is extremely unlikely, as it would require the consent of every member state.
At the same time, a deep divide has emerged within the alliance regarding participation in the operation, the newspaper writes. The bloc can be broadly divided into three groups: those offering full support for the actions of the United States and Israel, those condemning the operation, and those maintaining cautious neutrality. Washington’s actions are supported by countries that have few direct interests in the Middle East but seek to demonstrate solidarity with the Trump administration. These include Poland, the Baltic states, and the Czech Republic. Warsaw is concerned that the White House’s attention is now focused on the Middle East and that arms deliveries to Ukraine may therefore be postponed.
At the same time, discussions about the possible activation of Article 5 of the NATO Charter in the context of the confrontation between the United States and Iran appear to be more of a strategic precaution than an immediate legal necessity, military expert Dmitry Kornev told Izvestia. However, several critical factors explaining the Pentagon’s logic can already be identified.
"If the conflict in the Persian Gulf becomes prolonged, the United States may request additional assistance, primarily in terms of resources. Most likely, this concerns replenishment of ammunition stocks for Patriot surface-to-air missile systems," he said in an interview with Izvestia.
Izvestia: EU moving toward complete severance of economic ties with Russia
The European Commission is creating a legal framework aimed at fully severing economic ties with Russia, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. As a result, under the current leadership in Brussels, restoring contacts is not possible. Although trade turnover between Russia and the EU continues to decline, Moscow maintains cooperation with certain countries — primarily Hungary and Slovakia. While the EU is preparing its 20th package of sanctions, Russia is considering a complete halt to gas exports to European Union countries. According to calculations by Izvestia, such a step could cost Europeans approximately 13.8 bln euro per year.
Relations between Russia and the European Union are currently at their lowest point in history, and no prospects for normalization are visible at present.
"We see the European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, striving to create a long-term legal basis for a complete rupture of economic ties with our country, despite the damage already incurred by the European Union. Amid the rampant Russophobia prevailing in EU institutions, no prerequisites for restoring cooperation can currently be seen," Vladislav Maslennikov, Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department of European Problems, told Izvestia.
According to him, "caveman Russophobia is being presented as expertise on Russia." At the same time, Maslennikov added, Russia has never politicized economic cooperation.
A significant number of contradictions have accumulated in trade relations between Russia and the European Union, many of which are not directly linked to the topic of Ukraine, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) Egor Sergeyev told the newspaper.
"First, the European Union is tightening its trade policy overall, and not only in its relations with Russia. Second, the EU has either introduced restrictions against a significant portion of the most competitive Russian product groups, initiated related trade investigations, or applied other protective measures that are being used in parallel with sanctions," the expert added.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Ukraine proposes drone interceptors swap for Patriot missiles
Vladimir Zelensky has attached new conditions to the previously announced idea of Ukrainian military participation in protecting Middle Eastern countries from Iranian drones. He stated that he is prepared to share the expertise of Ukrainian air defense specialists and to sell interceptor drones produced in Ukraine to the United States and its allies, provided that Kiev receives expensive Patriot interceptor missiles in exchange, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. At the same time, the situation in the special military operation zone is developing unfavorably for Ukrainian forces, while negotiations between Kiev and Moscow have stalled.
Financial Times (FT) previously reported that the United States and one of the Persian Gulf countries are negotiating the purchase of Ukrainian interceptors to repel attacks by Iranian drones. The newspaper cited Ukrainian sources within the country’s defense industry. The publication noted that air defense forces in Persian Gulf countries are using expensive missiles from US-made Patriot systems to defend against Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), although inexpensive Ukrainian drones could serve this role instead. While the cost of a Shahed drone is only $30,000, a single interceptor missile such as the PAC-3 used in the Patriot system costs $13.5 mln, FT reported.
"There are around 200,000 AIM-9 type missiles in NATO stockpiles. Apparently, this should be sufficient for the Pentagon and its allies to combat Iranian UAVs," military expert and retired Lieutenant General Yury Netkachev told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. The expert recalled that, according to specialists, Shahed UAVs destroy enemy targets with a high probability, and therefore even US air defense systems, when using AIM-9 munitions, have so far found it difficult to deal with them effectively.
According to The New York Times, concerns about the depletion of the Pentagon’s stockpiles in the Middle East are confirmed by the numbers. According to US Central Command, during the first five days of the conflict Iran launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and more than 2,000 drones. Although many of them were intercepted, such a pace is reducing the Pentagon’s ability to use air defense systems against Iranian UAVs, the publication noted.
Iran, meanwhile, is demonstrating its capacity to continue military operations, and the United States is therefore deploying as many military resources as possible. "This means that Ukraine should not expect substantial military assistance from the United States. Moreover, the participation of Ukrainian servicemen in the conflict in the Middle East would only worsen the situation on the Ukrainian front," Netkachev noted.
The analyst also stated that Russian forces are confidently maintaining the initiative across all sectors in the special military operation zone and predicted that a reduction in arms deliveries to Ukraine would help the Russian army at the front, although not immediately.
Kommersant: Middle East conflict may boost demand for Russian energy and commodities
The effective closure of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz has already led to a decline in discounts on Russian oil and is expected to increase demand from India and China, Kommersant said in its analysis of the potential consequences of the military conflict in the Middle East for the Russian economy. Grain exporters may gain logistical advantages over competitors from Europe, while Rusal and fertilizer producers could benefit from rising global prices. At the same time, risks are emerging due to the increased costs of maritime transportation.
According to Kpler, disruptions or a complete blockade of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz — which accounts for about 20% of global demand for oil and petroleum products — could lead key buyers of Russian raw materials, India and China, to increase their reliance on shipments from Russia.
Natalya Porokhova, CEO of the Center for Price Indices, noted that geopolitical instability in the Middle East has historically led to major changes in the global energy sector. At present, Europe is increasing its interest in energy resources from the United States, while the role of supplies from Russia is growing for Asian countries, she added.
Gas prices in the European Union have doubled - as of March 5, the price of the April futures contract stands at about $670 per 1,000 cubic meters. However, this is unlikely to lead to an increase in Russian export volumes of pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Pipeline gas supplies from Russia are limited by the capacity of existing infrastructure: the TurkStream pipeline is already operating at maximum load, while the Power of Siberia pipeline is functioning above its planned capacity, Research Director at Implementa Maria Belova told Kommersant.
Other markets have also faced heightened volatility due to the conflict, which could be beneficial for Rusal, the largest aluminum supplier outside China, as well as for Russian producers of mineral fertilizers, the newspaper noted.
A source in the logistics industry told Kommersant that, in addition to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the United Arab Emirates may prohibit the movement of industrial cargo along its highways. According to market participants, the source added, industry analysts are already directing aluminum buyers toward Russia and India.
Vedomosti: Senate vote leaves Trump’s Iran war powers intact despite internal criticism
The US Senate rejected a resolution aimed at limiting President Donald Trump’s authority as commander-in-chief with regard to actions against Iran. The initiative did not reach the final approval stage, having been rejected during a procedural vote. The document was supported by 47 senators, while 53 voted against it. A similar outcome was expected on March 5 in the vote on an identical document in the House of Representatives, where Republicans also hold a majority. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that Trump currently faces limited political pressure and can maintain support in the short term, but if the conflict with Iran drags on, leads to higher casualties, or causes economic damage for Americans, pressure from within his own party could grow ahead of the midterm elections.
The text of the resolution emphasized that only Congress has the authority to declare war on another country and that the current hostilities between the United States and Iran amount to nothing less than a war. At the same time, the text noted that the use of military force against Iran corresponds to the concept of "hostilities" as defined in the 1973 War Powers Resolution. This document was one of the most significant limits on presidential military authority.
Trump can freely rely on the provisions of the 1973 law for 60 days, but the situation may become more complicated if, by the end of that period, he cannot show specific results on the battlefield, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Pavel Koshkin told Vedomosti.
In his opinion, a couple of weeks will be sufficient to determine potential rating risks for the president related to the strikes on Iran. Therefore, for a considerable period Trump may be able to successfully retain the support of his electorate.
Members of Trump’s own party will begin to ask uncomfortable questions if the operation drags on for more than several weeks, if casualties increase significantly, or if economic damage from retaliatory strikes or the blockade of the strait begins to affect ordinary Americans, Research Fellow at the Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) Vladimir Pavlov believes. In his view, by the summer the party will likely determine how to approach the midterm elections and the extent to which it will side with the president.
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