MOSCOW, March 5. /TASS/. Moscow stands ready to act as a mediator between Iran and the US; Washington may use the Kurds in its war against Tehran; and NATO is unwilling to abandon its eastward expansion plans. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Russia stands ready to act as mediator between Iran, US
Iran and the United States still have the opportunity to communicate through Switzerland, a source in the European country’s Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. Moscow also stands ready to act as a mediator, said Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna.
"I think Tehran would willingly use our mediation services in the current situation. However, the Americans are making it clear that they don’t need mediators and that Washington will cope with the current challenges on its own. But in fact, the Americans aren’t doing particularly well," Ulyanov noted.
However, in his view, it’s hard to imagine Washington and Tehran engaging in negotiations at this point. For the US, it’s crucial to rule out the possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, while Iran sees the lifting of US sanctions as a priority. This cannot be achieved through military means, so the parties will need to hold talks at later stages, the diplomat believes.
So far, there are no prospects in sight either for dialogue on international platforms or for the development of a consensus document on the Iran issue by the UN Security Council. "There are no conditions yet for making decisions based on consensus and developing shared positions," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told the newspaper.
Meanwhile, Israel believes that dialogue with the current Iranian leadership no longer makes sense, a parliament source told Izvestia. As for Iran, the issue of power succession has come to the fore following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Several candidates for the supreme leader have been named.
Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Oriental Studies, doubts that Iran’s next supreme leader will be able to pursue a course for de-escalation. According to the expert, any steps in that direction would actually mean that Iran accepts US and Israeli conditions, a move that is impossible for the country’s leadership to make. That said, no changes should be expected in Iran's policy.
Vedomosti: US could use Kurds in war against Iran
The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is training Kurdish armed groups in Iran to stir up a rebellion on the border with Iraq in order to create instability in the country and weaken the Tehran regime, American media outlets reported, citing sources. The areas the Kurds could seize may be used as a launching pad for a ground offensive against Tehran by the US and its allies, Vedomosti writes.
The Kurds may well be expected to stage armed provocations in Iran given their rich experience of guerrilla war, Yevdokia Dobreva, junior researcher with the Center for Middle East Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, pointed out. "They are capable of conducting subversive activities against the Iranian army as they have done before, forcing Tehran to deploy significant forces to suppress the pockets of resistance," she noted.
Kurdish organizations don’t have sufficient resources and influence in the country’s society to change the political system in Iran but they can easily mobilize their supporters to undermine stability in the outlying regions, Iran expert Anastasia Kislitsyna said. A potential joint operation by the US, Israel or the Kurds won’t pave the way for a change of government in the country, Dobreva agrees: "The Iranian army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have hundreds of thousands of personnel and are capable of quickly suppressing any local unrest."
Kislitsyna does not rule out the possibility that Iran’s Kurdish-populated areas will be used in a military offensive if Kurdish militants achieve success. "Trump is highly unpredictable. However, war in the Middle East is extremely unpopular in American society, so he is unlikely to go for such a risky venture. However, this cannot be said of Israel," the expert warned.
Ismail Gibadullin, editor-in-chief of the Iran 1979 website, notes that under no circumstances will the Kurds be able to impact the mood of the majority of Iranians or destabilize the country. According to the expert, the US and Israel are wrong if they expect to use the Kurds to achieve their goals.
Izvestia: NATO unwilling to abandon eastward expansion plans
Europe rejects Russia’s proposal that NATO formally abandon plans to expand to the east. Britain, Germany and France support the bloc’s open-door policy, officials and diplomatic sources in these countries told Izvestia.
NATO’s movement towards Russia’s borders is one of the main reasons for the current crisis between Moscow and Western countries. Many European nations, including the Baltic states, joined the North Atlantic Alliance after the Soviet Union’s collapse. Moscow suggested back in December 2021 that the bloc drop further expansion plans, remove its infrastructure facilities back to the 1997 borders, and engage in mutual security guarantees with Russia. However, NATO dismissed the option at the time.
St. Petersburg State University professor Natalya Yeryomina believes that NATO’s expansion increases the risk of conflicts. That said, the alliance is now likely to develop new instruments or partnership programs that will not automatically provide membership to countries in order to avoid making commitments to defend them but to be able to use the territory of those seeking to join the bloc.
An improvement in Russia-NATO relations seems impossible at this point as the parties pursue contradictory demands, Yekaterina Antyukhova, professor with the Department of Global Political Processes at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, added. Basic contradictions are rooted in incompatible fundamental positions on the European security architecture. The NATO leadership regards Russia as the main strategic threat, while Moscow sees risks coming from the bloc.
Alexander Alyoshin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, believes that relations between Russia and NATO can slightly improve after the Ukraine conflict is over or a series of agreements on European security is signed. However, such documents are unlikely to be drafted in the near future as NATO’s leading European powers maintain a strong anti-Russian position.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Poland announces plans to acquire nuclear weapons
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has made it clear that Warsaw plans to acquire nuclear weapons. According to him, Poland currently intends to cooperate with France and other allies in the nuclear arms field but it will later move on to independent activities, Rossiyskaya Gazeta reports.
Tusk did not elaborate on how far these independent activities could go. However, he pointed out that Poland was investing heavily in the construction of domestic nuclear power plants, which can be seen as a hint at access to nuclear technologies. The construction of Poland’s first nuclear power plant is indeed expected to begin at the Lubiatowo-Kopalino site in the country’s north. However, construction works will be carried out by the Americans, who will also ensure fuel supplies while maintaining strict control over the facility's activities.
"The Americans will carefully monitor that no weapons technology is brought to the nuclear power plant," Sergey Yermakov, head of the Center for Euroatlantic Studies at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, explained.
"Poland doesn’t have sufficient technical capacity or competence to create nuclear weapons. The country not only has no centrifuges to enrich materials to weapons-grade levels but it has never carried out serious research in this field that would allow it to acquire enough experience or potential," Yermakov emphasized. According to the expert, gaining access to military nuclear technologies requires time or significant effort, which would not go unnoticed by other countries and could lead to Poland at least facing sanctions from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Apart from Poland’s European neighbors, the US would also be displeased if Warsaw obtained nuclear weapons as Washington seeks to retain its role as Europe's main nuclear security guarantor. "Warsaw’s statements should rather be seen as a demonstration of the country’s willingness to host the nuclear weapons of other countries, namely the US and France," the expert noted.
Media: Experts predict major energy crisis in Europe
Europe’s gas prices have hit multi-year highs due to issues with supplies from the Gulf region. Experts predict that if the conflict does not end soon, Europe will face an energy crisis similar to the one that erupted in 2022, Izvestia notes.
Mikhail Shulgin, chief analyst at the investment analysis unit of the Rosgosstrakh Zhizn insurance company, points out that issues with liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries from the Middle East have not yet affected actual supplies to Europe while the rise in prices stems from expectations of future supply shortages.
Meanwhile, the current situation is slightly different from what it was in 2022. Four years ago, Europe was shocked by a sharp decline in pipeline imports but now, the continent is highly dependent on the global LNG market as well as maritime logistics. Besides, the EU has to compete for LNG with Asian nations. About 20% of global LNG supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, so a prolonged suspension or even a shutdown of deliveries will increase global competition for other sources of gas, pushing prices up on the international market.
Europe’s gas storage facilities are empty after the winter, as demand is growing in Asia ahead of the hot summer season. What is making things worse is that market players have not even a rough idea of how long the armed conflict will last or whether the US and European countries will be able to ensure a safe route for supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, Shulgin observed.
US President Donald Trump has announced that Washington will provide "political risk insurance and guarantees" to international shipping companies traveling through the Gulf while adding that if necessary, US Navy ships will escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, Vedomosti writes.
The idea of escorting tankers is reasonable but the question is whether shipborne air defenses will make this possible because drone attacks could overwhelm them, Maxim Shepovalenko, deputy director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told the paper. It is also unclear whether the US has enough ships for the convoys. Perhaps, the US will try to encourage NATO allies to join the mission. But in any case, establishing an effective convoy service in the midst of a war will take more than just a few days or weeks, the expert said.
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