MOSCOW, March 4. /TASS/. Iran retains a large ballistic missile arsenal and is resuming production, raising concerns that the conflict with the United States and Israel could escalate further; the United States may attempt to destabilize Cuba to prompt a change of power on the island; and the European Union may delay its planned ban on Russian LNG imports if supply shortages jeopardize energy security. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Iran’s missile arsenal capable of expanding conflict
Iran still possesses an arsenal of up to 2,500 ballistic missiles of various ranges and continues to restore their production. An Israeli military source told Izvestia that such a volume of weaponry could prolong the operation against Tehran far longer than its initiators had anticipated. The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran has already turned within days from a localized confrontation into a full-fledged regional crisis.
On March 3, Israel expanded the geography of the conflict by announcing the start of a ground operation in Lebanon and launching strikes on more than 160 Hezbollah targets. Meanwhile, Donald Trump effectively acknowledged the failure of a plan to reshape Iran: according to him, individuals whom the United States had seen as an alternative to the current authorities were killed in US strikes. Nevertheless, he still announced a "third wave" of attacks.
Iran’s missile and broader military production capabilities were severely damaged during the 12-day war in June 2025. However, Sarit Zehavi, a retired lieutenant colonel and president of Israel’s Alma Research and Education Center, told Izvestia that external assistance from China played a significant role in their subsequent recovery efforts.
At the same time, Iran possesses a wide range of capabilities for striking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, military expert and first-rank captain Vasily Dandykin told Izvestia. These include coastal missile systems, surface ships, submarines, as well as aerial and naval drones. In an extreme scenario, the strait could also be mined.
"For Iran itself, closing the strait would be economically disadvantageous: a significant share of its oil is shipped to China through these waters. However, the conflict has now entered a critical phase," the expert noted.
For the United States, suppressing Iran’s coastal defenses and restoring navigation in the Strait of Hormuz would be a complex task requiring a large-scale operation, military expert Alexey Leonkov told Izvestia.
"In order to ensure free navigation, a special operation would need to be carried out, involving US carrier strike groups and the naval forces already deployed in the region. But history shows that in such situations the sea always loses to the shore," he said.
Former Russian Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Tehran Alexander Maryasov told Kommersant he believes that the United States and Israel launched a new military operation against Iran, beginning with the killing of the country’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, along with calls for the opposition to seize power. However, they failed to quickly achieve a coup, and Washington and Tel Aviv now do not rule out that the operation may last longer than originally envisioned.
“Whether Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu truly believe this objective is achievable or whether these are merely rhetorical calls meant, so to speak, to embolden opponents of the regime is difficult to say. However, from the very beginning this task was unrealistic. One must understand the character of the Iranians, for whom any threat to their independence immediately provokes a reaction of rejection and condemnation,” he said.
By the fourth day of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran, the position of Washington’s European allies has become clearer. All of them are prepared to defend the territory of the European Union and NATO member states from potential Iranian strikes — but no more than that. European politicians appear to view the political costs of supporting Donald Trump’s operation as excessively high. Only the United Kingdom has offered assistance to the Americans, and even that appears to be largely symbolic rather than practical, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
At the same time, even the dynamics of the negotiation process on Ukraine could slow down due to the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, Rodion Miroshnik, Russia’s ambassador-at-large for crimes of the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.
"The risks primarily concern the role of the United States: how deeply it will be drawn into the development of the conflict in that region. Because the same people are involved in organizing the negotiation process. The outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East creates a negative backdrop for reaching a peace agreement," he said.
US expert Pavel Koshkin told Vedomosti that the operation against Iran may seriously undermine trust in the United States in other diplomatic tracks, particularly in negotiations on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In his view, it cannot be ruled out that Russia may further toughen its negotiating position and reconsider its overall approach to dialogue with Washington.
Izvestia: US might move to prepare groundwork for regime change in Cuba
The United States is attempting to destabilize the situation in Cuba in order to achieve a change of power on the island, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. In recent days, authorities in the republic arrested 10 citizens of Panama who were preparing anti-government posters intended to organize protests. The United States has not been officially named as the organizer behind these activities. However, US officials have openly stated that Cuba is next in line after Iran. For now, Cubans are not taking to the streets, yet the country’s difficult economic situation could trigger unrest. If efforts to destabilize the situation fail, the White House may decide to resort to more forceful actions, including a military operation.
One of the objectives of US policy toward Cuba over several decades has been to provoke dissatisfaction with the authorities’ policies and cultivate protest sentiment, Latin America expert Timur Almukov told Izvestia.
"The calculation of the US authorities is to make the situation of ordinary Cubans so difficult that they themselves will move to overthrow their government. Hence the attempts to isolate Cuba from all of its key partners — Russia, China, Venezuela, and Mexico," Almukov said.
Experts believe that the United States may consider the option of a military operation against Cuba. At the same time, a full-scale occupation of the country appears unlikely, as midterm elections to Congress will soon take place and the American public reacts extremely negatively to the deaths of US soldiers.
However, a military intervention cannot be completely ruled out, Egor Lidovsky, director general of the Hugo Chavez Latin American Cultural Center, told Izvestia. Prior to the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, few believed that the United States would undertake such an operation. Many experts were also skeptical that Washington would launch a prolonged campaign against Iran.
Izvestia: EU may postpone ban on Russian gas imports as supply shortages threaten price surge above $1,000
Amid a rapid surge in gas prices, which have risen by 60% since the beginning of March, the European Commission has decided to convene the Gas Coordination Group, with a meeting scheduled for March 4. Industry experts do not rule out that EU officials may postpone the ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) under short-term contracts, which was originally set to take effect at the end of April, Izvestia writes.
The European Union is likely to postpone the ban on short-term LNG contracts with Russia, which is due to come into force on April 25, 2026, and in the event of an adverse development in the global LNG market may also delay the ban on long-term contracts scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027, research director at the consulting company Implementa Maria Belova told the newspaper.
"This is possible if an ‘exceptional necessity’ arises and there is a real threat to the energy security of one or more EU member states. At the same time, those countries must first introduce a state of emergency in the energy sector," Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Russian Government, told Izvestia.
However, he believes that EU countries will try until the very last moment to "save face" and avoid admitting that they have put themselves in a difficult position by abandoning energy cooperation with Russia.
Vyacheslav Mishchenko, head of the Center for Analysis and Technologies of Fuel and Energy Sector Development, believes that the EU may postpone the deadlines for the ban on supplies of Russian LNG or even propose purchasing a certain volume of gas.
"The question is whether it is worth making concessions in such a format or attempting to help Europe, which has placed itself in this energy predicament, or whether it would be better to take a principled position. I believe that at present there will also be a niche for our gas in Asia," the expert told Izvestia.
Vedomosti: Germany, France launch nuclear cooperation framework
Germany and France will cooperate in the field of nuclear weapons, according to a statement published on the website of the German government. According to the document, Berlin and Paris have established a high-level steering group for cooperation on nuclear weapons that will serve as the basis for dialogue. This dialogue will involve consultations on the integration of conventional arms, missile defense systems and France’s nuclear capabilities. Specific steps within the framework of this new format of cooperation will include Germany’s participation with its conventional forces in French nuclear exercises, joint visits to strategic facilities and the development of conventional weapons in cooperation with European partners. The statement carefully emphasizes that nuclear deterrence will continue to rely on US nuclear forces and that the initiative is intended only to complement them, Vedomosti writes.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told Vedomosti that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that the actions of the United States and Israel toward Iran could prompt many countries to turn their attention to nuclear weapons. At the same time, according to Lavrov, Russia remains committed to ensuring the non-proliferation of such arms.
According to Pavel Timofeyev, head of the sector for regional problems and conflicts at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the political rationale behind the declaration from the French side is to send a signal to other European countries that Berlin and Paris remain the continent’s leaders in military and political terms. Active discussions about how European countries can protect their interests without US security guarantees have been ongoing for the past several years, and the recent declaration is intended to show that the situation is "not that bad," he told the newspaper.
At present, relations between France and Germany in the military-technical sphere remain complicated, director of the Center for Military-Economic Studies at the Institute of World Military Economy and Strategy of the Higher School of Economics Prokhor Tebin told Vedomosti. In this regard, Macron may have decided to contribute to easing tensions. As for the expansion of France’s extended nuclear deterrence, joint exercises and the deployment of French nuclear weapons beyond French territory are possible, while their transfer to non-nuclear states in the event of a conflict currently appears unlikely, Tebin believes.
Kommersant: Bank of Russia challenges legality of EU sanctions regime
The Bank of Russia has decided to challenge the indefinite freezing of its assets within the European Union, a measure approved by the EU Council in December 2025. The plaintiff argues that the decision violates the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union as well as fundamental legal principles, including the inviolability of property and the sovereign immunity of states. The central bank also sees a violation in the fact that the measures were approved not unanimously but only by a majority vote of EU member states. Experts refrain from predicting the outcome of the proceedings but note that the legal challenge itself creates hurdles to the confiscation of the frozen assets, Kommersant writes.
The Bank of Russia told Kommersant that it does not make predictions regarding the outcome of the legal proceedings but is "convinced that there are grounds for the annulment of the regulation." Taking into account the formal procedural requirements of Western courts, the process could potentially take 1.5-2 years, the central bank believes.
The Bank of Russia is not merely contesting the imposition of sanctions — it is "calling into question the legitimacy of the entire EU sanctions regulation system," Igor Kuznetsov, partner at FTL Advisers, told the newspaper. Roman Prudentov, partner in the corporate practice at Stonebridge Legal, added that there have previously been no precedents involving the blocking of sovereign assets on such a basis.
Alexander Grebelsky, managing partner at Grebelsky & Partners, noted that the prospects of the Bank of Russia’s procedural argument depend on the political context — including the volume of frozen funds and their role in securing loans to Ukraine — as well as the lengthy duration of the proceedings, which could take 2-5 years including appeals. The political situation inevitably influences the approach of the Court of Justice of the European Union, a partner in the corporate practice at Stonebridge Legal, Roman Prudentov agreed.
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