MOSCOW, January 6. /TASS/. Russia’s economy managed to achieve a significant decline in inflation in 2025 while also avoiding a recession, Vladimir Eremkin, senior research fellow at the Laboratory for Structural Research of the Institute of Applied Economic Research at the Presidential Academy, told TASS summing up the results of the past year.
"In 2025 the economy succeeded in avoiding a recession while at the same time achieving a substantial reduction in inflation, which, according to official statistics, fell below 6% in December. The Central Bank has moved to a cycle of key rate cuts, lowering it by 5 percentage points, and there are good reasons to believe that this trend will continue next year," the expert said.
According to him, the exit from overheating has been accompanied by a slowdown in investment activity and an uneven situation in industry, where some sectors continue to grow while others have shifted to stagnation or recession.
"At the same time, an active fiscal policy is cushioning negative trends, while low unemployment levels are supporting household incomes," he added.
According to Ksenia Bondarenko, associate professor at the Department of World Economy of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics, the main contribution to industrial output growth in the first ten months of 2025 came from the machinery-building sector and the production of fabricated metal products. At the same time, output declined in the light, food and woodworking industries, as well as in the utilities sector, as a result of high interest rates in the economy (and expensive financing) and higher taxes.
"Low economic growth rates in 2025 are a kind of ‘price’ paid for slowing inflation. Businesses are awaiting monetary policy easing by the Bank of Russia in 2026-2027 and are postponing investment decisions for the time being. In 2026, much will depend on the trajectory of the key rate, the extent of changes in macroprudential measures, the development of foreign trade settlements, consumer and producer sentiment, and many other factors," she said.