MOSCOW, September 12. /TASS/. Annual inflation in Russia will decline to 6-7% in 2025, and return to 4% in 2026. As of September 8, it totaled 8.2%, the Central Bank said in a press release following its board meeting on the key rate.
"Given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to 6-7% in 2025, return to 4% in 2026 and stay at the target further on. <…> Most indicators of underlying inflation are in the range of 4-6% in annualized terms. As of September 8, 2025, annual inflation stood at 8.2%," the regulator said.
"Proinflationary risks still prevail over disinflationary ones in the mid-term horizon. The key proinflationary risks are associated with a longer upward deviation of the Russian economy from a balanced growth path and high inflation expectations, as well as with the deterioration in the terms of external trade," according to the press release.
A further decrease in the growth rate of the global economy and oil prices in case of escalating trade disputes may have proinflationary effects through the ruble exchange rate dynamics, the regulator said, adding that geopolitical tensions remain a significant uncertainty factor, while disinflationary risks involve a more significant slowdown in domestic demand.
The Bank of Russia has lowered the key interest rate for the third consecutive time, this time by 1 percentage point, bringing it down to 17% per annum. The regulator intends to maintain such a level of monetary policy strictness as necessary to bring inflation back to target by 2026, with further decisions on the key rate to depend on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations.