MOSCOW, May 21. /TASS/. The European Commission (EC) has recognized the resilience of the Russian economy in its published spring economic report, Vladimir Yeremkin, a senior researcher at the Structural Research Laboratory of the Presidential Academy's Institute of Applied Economic Research (IAER), told TASS, commenting on the EC's upgraded estimates for Russia's GDP dynamics this year.
"The EC forecast reflects recognition of Russia's economic resilience. Overall, the European Commission's published forecast for Russia for 2026 should be viewed as politically neutral but economically overstated," he said.
"The official Russian position paints a picture of a controlled slowdown with a greater degree of realism, taking into account both internal (high key rate) and external (sanctions, possible low commodity prices in the calculation base) shocks," the expert added.
According to the expert, the EC forecast, conversely, exaggerates the positive impetus from instability in the Middle East and does not fully account for the scale of monetary tightness imposed by the Bank of Russia itself.
Yeremkin believes that the EC's GDP growth estimates are based on the effect of a fiscal cushion that high oil prices can provide.
"Domestic forecasters tend to view the oil rally as a relatively neutral factor, although, of course, this may conceal an underestimation of the situation. At the same time, the European Commission's budget forecast appears more pragmatic," the expert went on. "The Russian plan requires the authorities to significantly slow down the pace of spending in the second half of the year, which creates additional risks for economic growth, which is already close to zero."
Therefore, the optimism evident in the European Commission's figures is not yet fully confirmed by the more restrained and likely more realistic assessments of the Russian authorities.
"However, it can also be said here that public policymakers in Russia are always on guard and are developing scenarios that will require a rapid response from economic policy. In the event of positive trends, it will be easier to address the issues, so they are often left out of the analysis," the expert said.
He is convinced that although the general political line of Western countries remains unchanged, its practical implementation is being adjusted under the influence of current economic processes. However, this is specifically about postponing and easing future or some current restrictions, rather than completely lifting those already in place.
He added that it is also premature to talk about a broader warming of relations.
"A redrawing of economic and political contours is underway, where Russia is strengthening alternative ties, reducing its vulnerability to Western restrictions," Yeremkin noted.
On the European Commission's forecast
The European Commission has raised its estimate for Russia's GDP growth in 2026 from 1.1% to 1.3%. At the same time, its forecast for 2027 has been lowered from 1.2% to 1.1%. Although the EC slightly downgraded its inflation outlook for Russia, it still points to a downward trend in the indicator.
As Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted earlier, the government expects economic growth of 0.4% this year, after which the economy will enter a recovery phase, with growth rates rising from 1.4% in 2027 to 2.4% in 2029.
In its autumn forecast issued in September 2025, the Ministry of Economic Development estimated Russia's GDP growth at 1.3% in 2026, 2.8% in 2027, and 2.5% in 2028. In April, the Bank of Russia maintained its forecast for Russia's GDP dynamics, projecting a range of 0.5-1.5% for 2026 and 1.5-2.5% for 2027.