MOSCOW, May 12. /TASS/. Russia calls on Ukraine to restart direct talks in Istanbul; India and Pakistan exchange accusations of provocation after reaching a ceasefire deal; and NATO launches a major military drill along Russia’s border. These stories have topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: What to expect from potential new Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer for Ukraine to resume direct talks in Istanbul on May 15 "without any preconditions" was the main result of the four-day events dedicated to the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory in the Great Patriotic War, Vedomosti notes.
Putin made the statement the same day as Ukraine and its European allies - France, Germany, Poland and the United Kingdom - called for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on May 12. Otherwise, they said, Russia will have to face more sanctions. EU countries seem to still believe that Ukraine is capable of defending its positions on the battlefield, which is why they continue to provide military support to Kiev, Pavel Timofeev, head of the Sector of Regional Problems and Conflicts at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, noted.
Russia has never refused to hold talks, nor has it ever put forward preconditions, Nikolay Silayev, senior researcher with the Center of Caucasian Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations, emphasized. As for the agenda of potential talks, the parties need to build upon the draft agreement that was reached in the previous round of Istanbul talks, only recognizing Russia’s new border, he said. Silayev points out that Putin’s statement was important for US President Donald Trump who is unprepared to engage in a confrontation with Russia at a scale that was maintained by his predecessor but on the other hand, he is also unwilling to abandon Ukraine, which is seen as a foreign policy asset by the US and the West in general.
The main challenge lies in the position of Ukraine and European countries who insist that a ceasefire must come first, Valdai International Discussion Club expert Andrey Kortunov observed. According to him, "such a plan does not suit Russia because there is no guarantee that Ukraine will abide by a ceasefire." The analyst expects several rounds of mediation diplomacy to take place in the next three days in order to bring the positions of Russia and Ukraine closer together.
Putin has made another grandmaster move. The offer of an immediate launch of talks in Istanbul without preconditions is pulling the rug from under the Kiev regime and its sponsors, Diplomatic Academy Vice Principal Oleg Karpovich told Izvestia. Moscow realizes that a ceasefire is only possible in a situation where Kiev agrees to engage in a serious dialogue that would take Russia’s demands into account. Perhaps, the pressure that the Zelensky regime is facing from Trump will eventually accelerate things forward, the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: India, Pakistan exchange accusations of provocation after reaching ceasefire deal
India and Pakistan reached a ceasefire agreement on May 10, after four days of hostilities. The news was first announced by US President Donald Trump on the Truth Social platform. The authorities of the opposing countries confirmed it a bit later; however, they continued to exchange accusations of military provocation, Vedomosti writes.
US media outlets reported, citing Indian government sources, that New Delhi and Islamabad had agreed a ceasefire in direct consultations, without enlisting Trump as a mediator. Meanwhile, White House sources pointed to the important role that US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had played in the agreements reached by India and Pakistan.
Although Pakistan sought mediation from China, Beijing was unable to take on this role due to its tense relations with New Delhi, Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, observed. This is why it’s even convenient for Beijing that the Americans acted as intermediaries, the analyst said. According to him, despite close economic ties with Islamabad, China does not have a controlling stake in Pakistan’s foreign and internal policy.
Both India and Pakistan are interested in de-escalating violence, so they are trying to backtrack now, Boris Volkhonsky, associate professor at Moscow State University’s Institute of Asian and African Studies, pointed out. In his opinion, the authorities in both countries have reached their political goals, demonstrating their resolve to protect national interests to their voters. "That said, a further escalation will serve no one. Neither India nor Pakistan wants to cross red lines by using regular forces on each other’s territory," the expert elaborated.
Volkhonsky believes that Trump decided to interfere in the India-Pakistan conflict in order to demonstrate some diplomatic success to his fellow citizens amid failures in resolving the Russia-Ukraine crisis. "The Indians and the Pakistanis were already prepared for de-escalation, so the US president took the opportunity to step in, passing it off as the result of clever diplomacy," the expert noted.
Izvestia: NATO launches major military exercise along Russia’s border
Major military drills are kicking off in Finland on May 12, which involve Sweden and the United Kingdom. About 7,000 troops will take part in the operation. The drills, set to last until May 31, are aimed at practicing indirect fire, as well as the use of attack helicopters and drones in the north, Izvestia reports.
NATO is currently trying to master the skills and knowledge gained in Ukraine, military expert Vadim Kozyulin said. "They have come to understand that the unmanned aerial vehicles the alliance has in service are already outdated," he explained. "Military technology is developing rapidly in the course of Russia’s special military operation. It’s safe to say that Ukraine has turned into a kind of testing ground for advanced equipment and weapons, primarily UAVs. Now, NATO must be considering forming drone forces, which is what Kiev is already doing," Kozyulin added.
Finland has joined NATO just recently, but in fact, it has always been the bloc’s ally, repeatedly hosting joint drills with the North Atlantic Alliance. According to the expert, the current exercise is nothing new, it’s just that its magnitude is larger, and this is exactly what makes it a threat to Russia. "We need to show an adequate response. For the time being, we will simply watch what they do, taking it into account. NATO keeps saying that it will only implement defense scenarios, but the drills it holds also practice actions suitable for aggressive operations," the analyst stressed.
For years, Sweden and Finland maintained neutrality, preserving good-neighborly relations first with the Soviet Union and then with Russia, which benefited them both economically and politically, Sergey Ordzhonikidze, former United Nations undersecretary, pointed out. "However, they have now taken an overtly anti-Russian position, giving in to the influence of the British and other major Western European nations. In particular, they joined NATO.
What did they get in return? Nothing but the need to obey the bloc’s military and political leadership. This doesn’t strengthen their security but undermines it. Russia has never posed a threat to these countries. On the contrary, it always supported their neutrality," the expert noted. In the meantime, it must be remembered that any hostile action against a country such as Russia will not remain without serious consequences, Ordzhonikidze concluded.
Kommersant: Russian oil exports recover to 2024 level
Declining oil prices and freight rates have contributed to a rise in Russian oil exports. In April, oil shipments through ports rose to 448,000 metric tons per day, recovering to the level recorded in December 2024, when the US introduced sweeping sanctions. Given a stable demand for oil in Asia and a decrease in transportation fees, the current export level is expected to continue into May, Kommersant writes.
Alexey Politov, senior analyst at the Price Index Center, says that India, China and Turkey remain the key markets of oil exports as demand for Russian oil brands remains stable there due to attractive prices.
Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya, stock market expert at BCS World of Investment, believes that April’s export growth stemmed from a decline in global oil prices, accompanied by a speedy recovery of production by OPEC+ countries. If the group continues to gradually restore production to the previous levels, additional conditions may be created for a rise in Russian exports, she noted. The expert also pointed to recovering supplies to China, which were partially interrupted by the sanctions that the US introduced in January.
Politov adds that market participants expect the level of exports will either remain the same or slightly grow in May.
Igor Yushkov, a specialist at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, warns that there are currently no reasons for the growth of oil prices, given geopolitical tensions and trade wars. The OPEC+ group’s decision to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in June will have an additional effect on the market as it is three times as much as the initial plan, he stressed.
Meanwhile, restrictions on the fleet carrying Russian oil may be expanded. According to Bloomberg, the EU’s 17th package of sanctions, which is currently in the works, may target up to 150 tankers suspected of circumventing the oil price cap. Rokotyanskaya notes that the main risk is that the US will support the EU, introducing similar restrictions.
Kommersant: Analysts explain reasons for rise in cryptocurrency prices
Bitcoin’s price has approached the $105,000 level for the first time since January. The digital currency’s value rose by over 9% in less than a week due to soft rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve and a trade agreement between Washington and London. The capitalization of other major cryptocurrencies increased by 8-36% during the same period. Experts interviewed by Kommersant expect the bull campaign to continue amid hopes for an easing of frictions between the United States and its trading partners.
Another wave of growth in the leading cryptocurrency’s price stems from the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s May 7 meeting, which maintained the key rate at the 4.25-4.5 range. According to BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov, market participants paid special attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks about the influence that the Trump administration's tariff policy could have on inflation processes. As a result, investors started to predict a potential decline in interest rates in the second quarter of 2025. "Cheaper money always increases demand for risky assets," Roman Kaufman, CEO and founder of Alpha7291, pointed out.
An improving geopolitical situation gave an additional boost to the process. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with the UK. "The general tone of the ‘tariff wars’ has significantly softened. On May 11, Trump announced that the US and China reached an agreement to fully reload relations following a meeting in Switzerland, where numerous issues had been discussed and agreements had been achieved on most of them," Neomarkets Chief Analyst Oleg Kalmanovich noted. Consequently, investor appetite for risks, as well as demand for digital currencies, increased across the world.
Bitcoin price stabilizing above the $100,000 level has paved the way for continued growth and new all-time highs. Antonov expects the price to reach the $114,000-119,000 threshold in the near future. In the coming week, investors will focus on US inflation data, set to be released on May 13, and on Trump's rhetoric. "If the negotiation process continues and new trade agreements are reached, it will be only a matter of time when bitcoin will hit new records," Kalmanovich said.
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