MOSCOW, December 15. /TASS/. Excluding investment demand, the palladium market will be balanced in 2025, while the platinum market will post a deficit of 0.3 mln ounces. At the same time, developments in 2026 will largely depend on the dynamics of investment activity, according to a metals market outlook prepared by Nornickel.
"Overall, the palladium market is expected to be fairly balanced in 2025 if investment demand is excluded. If investment demand is taken into account, a deficit of 0.2 mln ounces will emerge in the market," the report said. Meanwhile, the platinum market, excluding investment demand, is expected to show a deficit of about 0.3 mln ounces in 2025, which widens to 0.4 mln ounces when investment demand is included.
"As for 2026, much will depend on the dynamics of investment activity. If investment demand is excluded, the palladium market deficit is expected to reach 0.1 mln ounces, while the platinum deficit is likely to remain at the 2025 level," Nornickel noted.
The company added that supply from Nornickel remains stable, while overall Russian supply is expected to increase in 2026-2027 following the launch of the Chernogorskoye deposit.
Price rally
Since early July, platinum prices have risen by 20%, while palladium prices have gained 38%. The company noted that this was largely driven by a surge in investment interest in platinum group metals amid a record rally in gold prices. "Heightened investor attention to platinum coincided with a favorable fundamental environment, when supply disruptions emerged in South Africa, jewelry demand strengthened in China, and production of internal combustion engine vehicles increased," Nornickel added. Palladium also attracted a certain level of investment demand following increased interest in gold and platinum, the company said.
Additional support for prices came from a sharp reduction in palladium supplies from North America, sustained demand from the automotive industry, and risks of potential market instability, as the results of an anti-dumping investigation in the United States have yet to be announced. The price rally in platinum group metals (PGMs) was further reinforced by growing expectations of monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve.
On demand for metals
In addition, Nornickel expects demand from the automotive industry for palladium to grow by 1% in 2025, while demand for platinum will decline by 2%. In 2026, global vehicle production is expected to increase by 3% to 99 mln units, with palladium demand rising by 2% and platinum demand falling by 4%. "Opposite trends in demand for palladium and platinum in the automotive industry are driven by changes in the powertrain mix, as palladium-containing hybrid vehicles replace diesel models that rely on platinum," the company added.
Other key industrial segments are expected to continue expanding — by 2% for palladium and by 3% for platinum in 2025 — supported by the ongoing expansion of data centers linked to the development of artificial intelligence, as well as the emerging use of palladium in glass manufacturing.
"In 2026, we expect consumption of both metals to increase by 5% as new purified terephthalic acid and paraxylene production capacities are commissioned in China following a slowdown in 2025. Primary supply is expected to decline by 6% for palladium and by 3% for platinum in 2025, with the pace of decline easing in 2026," Nornickel emphasized.