MOSCOW, January 3. /TASS/. Gas prices are expected to increase across all major global markets in 2025, followed by a decline in 2026-2027 to levels still twice as high as the average of the previous decade, experts surveyed by TASS predict. In Europe, prices will see moderate growth this year, with the most significant increase anticipated in the US.
"In 2025, spot prices will rise across major markets, but apart from the US, most of the increase will occur in the first half of the year due to the low base from early 2024, as prices dropped sharply at the end of winter and early spring," said Alexey Belogoryev, research director at the Institute for Energy and Finance Foundation. "I expect the average TTF price to climb 10% year-on-year in 2025, with the Asian JKM Index gaining 13%, temporarily widening the Asian price premium to nearly 10%," he added.
Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman forecasts a moderate increase in Europe's average gas price to $420 per 1,000 cubic meters. Experts attribute this to the rapid depletion of underground gas storage facilities in November-December, a liquefied natural gas supply shortage, and uncertainties surrounding the launch timelines of specific US LNG projects. Belogoryev also noted that restrictions on Russian LNG in the EU are unlikely to take effect before 2026. Earlier, TASS reported that gas prices in Europe dropped to around $380-390 in 2024, based on futures data from London’s ICE exchange and agency calculations.
Although concerns over Russian gas transit via Ukraine may add pressure to prices, they will not serve as the primary factor for price determination, experts told TASS. Finam predicts only a short-term price increase of up to 10%. "This is not a Europe-wide issue but rather a localized crisis affecting Austria and Slovakia. The northwestern European market, which plays a dominant role in European price formation, is only indirectly and weakly influenced by Ukrainian transit matters," Belogoryev concluded.
Moreover, the speculative capital has a weak influence on prices now, having lost much interest in exchange trade in gas after a surge in 2021-2022. It is still important for maintaining market liquidity, but it does not determine the price dynamics. Last autumn, Gazprom chief executive Alexey Miller noted the emergence of speculative capital on the European gas market, which pushed the price volatility in the region upward.
However, an additional rise in prices in Europe is possible in the event of a cold and windless second half of the winter, Deputy Head of the National Energy Security Fund Alexey Grivach said, adding that it will affect the consumption of heat and the volumes of gas in the underground gas storage facilities by the end of the heating season. "The price crisis on the gas markets continues, especially in Europe. Prices are still 2-3 times higher than the average level of the previous decade. It has continued for almost four years already, since the summer of 2021. This is a whopping blow to energy-intensive sectors of industry and the gas sector, where losses reached tens of billions due to the broken ties with Russia," the expert stressed.
Regional price trends and forecast for 2026-2027
In Asia, rising gas prices this year will stem from heightened competition with Europe for LNG. Meanwhile, the US will see the sharpest increase in spot prices—up 29% year-on-year—due to record-low 2024 prices and growing LNG demand amid limited production expansion.
By late 2025, global LNG market balance improvements will reverse the price trend in Europe and Asia, leading to a sharp decline in 2026-2027, followed by a gradual rebound in 2028-2029, Belogoryev explained.
"Although the 2026-2027 price drop will be significant, it won’t match the dramatic declines of 2019-2020. In 2027, TTF prices will bottom out at $320 per 1,000 cubic meters, still double their nominal 2019 levels due to inflation and the absence of Russian pipeline gas as an alternative to LNG," he said.
Additionally, a temporary price gap is anticipated between Austria and Italy’s spot prices and the TTF hub index in 2025-2026, reflecting reduced Russian pipeline gas supplies to Central and Eastern Europe, the expert added.