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Economic Development Ministry raises Russia’s forecast for oil and gas output in 2021

Next year Russia is expected to produce 559.9 mln tonnes of oil, which is 1.4% higher than the current estimate

© Alexei Andronov/TASS

MOSCOW, September 21. /TASS/. The volume of Russia’s oil output in 2021 may reach 516.8 mln tonnes against the previous estimate of 512.4 mln tonnes, the Ministry of Economic Development said in the explanatory note to the draft federal budget for 2022-2024. The forecast for gas production was also raised from 693.3 bcm to 758.8 bcm.

The forecast for Russia’s exports and output has been increased for 2022 and downgraded for gas output and exports. Next year Russia is expected to produce 559.9 mln tonnes of oil, which is 1.4% higher than the current estimate of 552.4 mln tonnes. At the same time, the forecast for oil exports was increased by 6.7% to 273.8 mln tonnes.

Gas production in 2022 will be 2.8% lower than the previous estimate and will reach 748.9 bcm. Gas exports are planned at 230.5 bcm, 3.3% lower than the previous forecast.

The forecast’s revision is related to the OPEC+ agreements reached in July 2021. At the same time, the document’s authors noted that as the largest producing countries (within OPEC+ and outside of it) increase oil output, and the recovery phase of global economic growth ends, oil prices are expected to gradually decline from $66 per barrel in 2021 to around $55 per barrel by the end of 2024.

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