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Russian grain deal withdrawal not seen triggering price surge — Japanese expert

The possibility of non-extension of the current deal is already priced in when entering into grain futures, Hironori Fushita said

TOKYO, July 17. /TASS/. Russia’s potential exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative would not trigger any dramatic rise in food prices, Hironori Fushita, associate professor in the Russian Studies Department of the Foreign Studies Faculty at Kobe City University of Foreign Studies and research fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, told TASS on Monday.

"I believe the possibility of non-extension of the current deal is already [priced in] when entering into grain futures," the expert said. "The market will not therefore overreact to such a course of developments with a strong price rally. Meanwhile, [prices] may start rising gradually in case problems with grain supply stability occur or if the market [sentiment] is swept by such concerns," Fushita said.

"Grain prices in developing Asian economies generally follow prices evolving in developed nations of the European Union and the US," the expert said. "That’s why the effect of any termination of the recent deal would be limited for Asian markets. Certainly, unless there is a dramatic rise in prices in the European Union and the United States, which is so far unlikely," he added.

Agreements on food exports from Ukraine were made for 120 days in Istanbul on July 22, 2022, and have since been extended three times. One of the agreements deals with the procedure from exporting grain from Black Sea ports controlled by Kiev. The other part, providing for exports to global markets of Russian food products and fertilizers, has not been implemented to date. On May 18, Russia announced its approval of a 60-day extension of the grain deal up to July 17, cautioning that this time period would be sufficient for conducting a definitive assessment of whether the grain deal’s terms, including those enabling Russian agricultural exports, were being duly implemented.