MOSCOW, April 18. /TASS/. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's latest remarks regarding the prospects for a Ukrainian settlement suggest that Washington's support for Kiev will either remain limited or that the United States may choose to remain aloof from actively mediating the conflict. In an interview with RBC-Ukraine, Ukrainian expert Oleg Sahakyan offered his analysis of these developments.
He outlined three possible scenarios following the Paris talks and Rubio’s statements. The first, he noted, is that Russia might continue to leverage the United States as a tool to exert pressure on Ukraine. However, Sahakyan considers this an unlikely outcome. The second, and more probable scenario, is that former President Trump will disengage from the Russia-Ukraine conflict entirely, deprioritizing it along with other issues, leaving both Russia and Ukraine outside his immediate concerns.
The most plausible scenario, according to Sahakyan, is what he terms an "inertial" path. In his view, Trump might essentially wash his hands of the matter, suggesting that Europe should handle it on its own. Meanwhile, U.S. bureaucratic processes would continue, predominantly driven by the wing led by Rubio, resulting in continued sanctions against Russia and limited support for Ukraine - carried on by inertia rather than active policy shifts.
Sahakyan emphasized that under these conditions, prospects for increased U.S. assistance to Ukraine appear bleak. "I do not see any scenario where the U.S. would open up all its reserves for Ukraine or sell advanced weaponry like F-16s and Patriots," he stated, highlighting Trump's reluctance to escalate military support at this stage.
Earlier, Rubio remarked that after three years of U.S. support - amounting to billions of dollars - Washington should now focus on other priorities. This statement underscores a potential shift in U.S. policy, indicating a move away from sustained involvement in Ukraine’s conflict resolution.