MOSCOW, December 15. /TASS/. The global copper market will remain close to balance with a slight surplus this year and may shift back into deficit next year, according to a metals market outlook prepared by Nornickel.
"Overall, the refined copper market is expected to remain close to balance in 2025: supply is forecast at around 27.7 mln tons (+3%), while demand is projected at approximately 27.6 mln tons (+4%), implying a small surplus. In 2026, according to the forecast, both indicators will continue to grow, to about 28.3 mln tons (+2%) for supply and 28.4 mln tons (+3%) for demand, as a result of which the market will again move into deficit and a gradual tightening of market fundamentals," the outlook said.
The company noted that despite a relatively balanced picture in the short term, persistent underperformance relative to production plans, delays in the launch of new projects, and limited investment in the development of new deposits are sustaining elevated structural supply risks. This comes amid continued growth in per capita electricity consumption, transport electrification, the energy transition, and AI-based digitalization, which act as powerful long-term drivers of copper demand.
On copper prices and demand
Nornickel noted that copper prices continue to reflect an imbalance between constrained supply and uneven demand. "LME copper prices rose from around $9,195 per ton in early May to levels above $10,300 per ton following disruptions at the Grasberg mine, and by early December exceeded $11,500 per ton. In addition to fundamental supply and demand factors, persistent expectations of the introduction of US import duties under Section 232 on cathode copper — which could come into force from 2027 — played a significant role in this price rally," the report said.
The company also believes that a sustained shortage of primary supply has contributed to rising copper prices.
Copper mine production is expected to total about 23.4 mln tons (+0.4%) in 2025 and 23.8 mln tons (+1.9%) in 2026.
Copper demand shows mixed dynamics across regions. In China, transport electrification, growth in renewable power generation, and increased spending on grid infrastructure are supporting consumption, while a prolonged correction in the real estate sector continues to weigh on demand. In Europe, high energy prices and weakened consumer confidence have constrained industrial activity. Nevertheless, spending on grid infrastructure and renewable energy remains relatively resilient. In the United States, investment in manufacturing continues to remain in positive territory, driven by the expansion of data centers, Nornickel noted.
About the company
Nornickel is a diversified mining and metals company and the world’s largest producer of palladium and high-grade nickel. The group’s production assets are located in Russia’s Norilsk Industrial District, on the Kola Peninsula and in the Trans-Baikal region, as well as in Finland.
Nornickel’s key shareholders are Vladimir Potanin’s Interros (37%) and Rusal, founded by Oleg Deripaska (26.39%).