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IMF lowers Russia’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.6%

The forecast for the current year has been lowered by 0.3 percentage points compared with the Fund’s July estimates

WASHINGTON, October 14. /TASS/. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth in 2025 to 0.6%, while maintaining its 2026 estimate at 1%. The figures were published in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report.

The forecast for the current year has been lowered by 0.3 percentage points compared with the Fund’s July estimates. For next year, IMF experts still expect Russia’s GDP to grow by 1%. Last year, according to the Fund, the Russian economy expanded by 4.3%. In April, the IMF had assessed this figure at 4.1%.

Regarding the revisions to GDP growth estimates for the current year, the report clarified that the downward revision is largely driven by the recent publication of data indicating a concentration of budget expenditures in the Q4 of 2024, which led to the adjustment of the 2024 GDP growth estimate from 4.1% to 4.3%. The reverse effect is reflected in the 2025 forecast, the report said.

According to the Fund’s projections, inflation in Russia reached 8.4% in 2024, will rise to 9% in 2025, and is expected to decline to 5.2% in 2026. The IMF estimates that Russia’s unemployment rate stood at 2.5% last year, will decrease to 2.4% this year, and rise to 3.1% in the future.

Earlier, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development lowered its own GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5% to 1%, and for 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3%.