MOSCOW, January 7. /TASS/. The launch of the TurkStream gas pipeline aims to increase the reliability of Russian gas supplies to the markets of Turkey and Southeast Europe. Although the moment for the launch is not the most favorable given gas oversupply in the market, the project has long-term value, according to analysts interviewed by TASS.
The launch of the gas pipeline, which runs from the Russkaya compressor station in the Anapa region along the bottom of the Black Sea to the Turkish coast, is scheduled for January 8. The capacity of the two lines of the TurkStream will be 15.75 bln cubic meters each. The first line of the pipeline is intended for gas supplies to Turkish consumers, the second - for the countries of Southern and Southeast Europe. Then, a land transit line will be laid to the border of Turkey with neighboring countries.
The project for the construction of a pipeline along the bottom of the Black Sea was called the South Stream initially. Its capacity was estimated at 63 bln cubic meters per year. Given the projects to expand gas transportation infrastructure in the Baltic, this would completely replace the Ukrainian route. However, due to opposition from the European Commission in December 2014, Russia announced that it was backing away from the South Stream. After some time, the project found a new life in the form of the TurkStream, but with less capacity.
"The TurkStream will increase the reliability of Russian deliveries to the markets of Turkey and Southeast Europe, give an impetus to the development of gas infrastructure in the region and increase development sustainability of countries by strengthening the role of gas in energy balances among other reasons," Deputy director general at the National Energy Security Fund Alexey Grivach said.
Director of Fitch’s Corporate Division Dmitry Marinchenko underlined Turkey’s benefits from increased competition in the country's gas market. "Turkey is a net importer of gas. Its energy strategy involves reducing gas consumption, including through green energy, diversifying gas suppliers and turning it into a gas trading hub, like Germany in northern Europe. After the launch of the TANAP pipeline, which delivers Azerbaijan gas to Turkey, as well as the TurkStream, Turkey is in a winning position and can count on competitive prices. Its portfolio includes pipeline gas from Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran, as well as LNG," the expert said.
"For Gazprom, this means that in order to maintain market share in Turkey, it will have to offer competitive prices, as is the case in many other European countries. The high prices policy for countries that are not able to purchase it from alternative suppliers is a thing of the past," he added.
For the long run
Regarding the timing of the TurkStream, analysts agree that, given gas oversupply on the European market, the moment for starting supplies may not be the most favorable. However, the situation is temporary, and the project is designed for many years to come.
According to Ekaterina Kolbikova from VYGON Consulting, by the end of 2019, Russian gas supplies to Turkey could reach about 18-19 bln cubic meters compared to 24 bln cubic meters in 2018. "Due to a decline in consumption, the loading of the first line of the TurkStream in 2020, is generally likely to be low - no more than 60% (8-9 bln cubic meters) amid weak demand and high competition with LNG and Azerbaijani gas. These volumes will be transferred from the Trans-Balkan route, i.e. from the Ukrainian direction," the expert said.
Increasing gas supplies through the gas pipeline to European countries will be carried out in stages until the end of 2020: at the beginning of the year, the Bulgarian side will join the second line, which, in turn, will be able to pump gas to Greece and Macedonia. In mid-2020 at the earliest, a line to Serbia will be launched. In total, this route will provide up to 6 bln cubic meters in 2020, that is, the loading of the second line of the TurkStream will be about 40%, Kolbikova noted. The fact is that the largest countries in terms of import - Hungary and Slovakia, reserved the gas pipeline capacities only from 2021 and from mid-2022, respectively.
"The gas market in Europe is, of course, very competitive. Especially given the growing share of LNG, including Novatek’s contribution. Especially at the beginning of 2020 the situation is complicated by the fact that on the one hand, out of fear of termination of Ukrainian transit, underground gas storage facilities were filled by over 90%, but transit through Ukraine was extended. As a result, an excess of gas at the beginning of the year is inevitable. Of course, this will put pressure on prices, but the situation is temporary and the infrastructure has long-term value," analyst at Finam Group Alexey Kalachev noted.
"Moreover, the total volume of gas in the European market is one thing, and gas availability in individual regions is another. Since the TurkStream is designed for the southern part of the region, which is not very saturated with hydrocarbons, this project has a future," he added.
Alexey Grivach agrees: "The situation is not the most favorable for the launch, although Russian gas has advantage over competitors even under these conditions. However, the most important thing is that the gas pipeline’s was designed for at least 50 years; therefore, temporary market prices fluctuations do not have a serious negative impact on a strategically significant project."
US sanctions
In December 2019, the United States Senate approved the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) specifying the annual budget and expenditures of the US Department of Defense for 2020 fiscal year (started on October 1), which obliges the administration to impose sanctions on the Russian Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream pipelines. Earlier, on December 11, the House of Representatives voted for the document. Switzerland-based Allseas, pipe-laying company for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, reported suspension of pipelay activities until regulatory, technical and environmental clarifications from the relevant US authority.
Analysts do not see any great dangers from the restrictions imposed on the TurkStream. "The gas pipeline itself has already been filled with gas, construction has been completed, and commissioning is underway, so the sanctions against the TurkStream operator will not have negative consequences for the project," Ekaterina Kolbikova said.
Dmitry Marinchenko shares the same opinion: "Sanctions are unlikely to have any effect on the first line of the pipeline, used for supplies for the Turkish market, but they can slow down construction of a host infrastructure for the second line, which is expected to supply which gas to Europe through Bulgaria.".