NEW YORK, April 3. /TASS/. The global economy could be hit by a third global recession in almost 20 years amid US President Donald Trump’s introduction of sweeping tariffs, the Axios portal reported.
It said that over the past almost two decades, the world has twice faced serious economic shocks - the financial crisis of 2008-2009, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. However, Trump's import duties and potential retaliatory measures by other countries could lead to a third "economic earthquake" in 20 years.
The portal quoted consulting company Evercore as saying that in 2024, the US imported $3.3 trillion worth of goods, or more than $25,000 per household. If, on average, the new tariffs fluctuate around 29% for 2025, the US will pay $1 trillion in import duties, or $7,300 per household. The likelihood, though, is that many goods will just stop being imported, leading to shortages and an increase in prices.
Here the 54% duty on goods from China may play a particularly negative role, since China exports a variety of high-tech goods to the United States, including smartphones, and affordable products for middle-and low-income families. Rising prices for Chinese goods in the United States could lead to a significant increase in poverty levels.
Also, the negative impact of the tariffs is underpinned by a high degree of interconnection between the United States and its trading partners. If an economic standoff leads to a recession in the countries trading with Washington, it could hurt exports of American goods. "These policies, if sustained, would likely push the U.S. and global economy into recession this year," JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note, published immediately after the introduction of duties.
The portal noted, however, that it remains to be seen if the US will stay the course with the tariffs. "One lesson from the first few months of the Trump presidency is you have to let news cure a little before you take it seriously," Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, said. In particular, as the portal pointed out, global stocks tumbled after Trump's tariff announcement albeit "not as much as they would have if they believed these tariffs will be fully implemented and will be here to stay."
On April 2, Trump imposed customs duties on imports from many countries around the world. An individual rate will be applied to some countries. On top of that, the US administration will impose 25% customs duties on all imported cars starting from April 3.