WASHINGTON, August 1. /TASS/. A possible direct military clash with Shiite movement Hezbollah after the assassination of its military commander Fuad Shukr may become Israel’s biggest challenge in decades, professor at Georgetown University Daniel Byman and political expert, former US Department of Defense employee Seth G. Jones said to Foreign Policy magazine.
"If the conflict broadens, Hezbollah’s massive rocket and missile arsenal and hardened military forces would pose a major threat to Israel," according to their estimates. In such a case the disruption caused to the country is "likely to be far more massive than Israel has experienced in decades," even including the Palestinian radical movement Hamas’ attack on October 7. "Hezbollah, one of the most heavily armed non-state groups in the world, poses a much more serious air threat to Israel than Hamas does," the experts say. Based on their data, Hezbollah has a large arsenal of between 120,000 and 200,000 rockets and missiles.
Byman and Jones believe that in this scenario a war might also spread to the neighboring Syria and Iraq, both of which stand on Hezbollah’s side and possess significant military capabilities. The Shiite movement may receive support from the Houthis in Yemen who can "continue their war against Israel, even if the fighting stops in Gaza."
On July 30, the Israeli army reported a strike on Beirut and confirmed that Shukr had been eliminated as a result of this targeted operation. According to the Israeli military, he was Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s right-hand man and was responsible for strategic issues in the military organization of the movement, including missile weapons. On Wednesday, CNN reported that Iranian military adviser Milad Bedi was among those killed along with Shukr.
The situation in the Middle East escalated sharply after the infiltration of Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory on October 7, 2023, which was marked by the killing of civilians and hostage-taking. In response, Israel announced a complete blockade of Gaza and began to strike at the sector and certain territories of Lebanon and Syria. Then it launched a ground operation in the enclave, as a result of which 39,000 Palestinians were killed and 90,100 were injured.