NEW YORK, May 26. /TASS/. The United States’ ambiguity on the Middle East conflict and Hamas’ potential rocket capability could re-escalate the situation at a moment’s notice, Professor of International Relations at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles Patrick James told TASS.
"The short answer to your questions above is that we are back to the status quo before May 10, but with mortal danger of very high escalation if Hamas is able to break through the Iron Dome," James said.
The expert noted that on the one hand, the readiness and ability of Hamas to resume conflict could affect the situation. "Whether the peace holds is a product of calculations by Hamas. In particular, will the US block further arms transfers to Israel? (That does seem unlikely to happen.) If so, further attacks become more likely. Another key question that might be answered by classified material, if at all, is this one: What rocket capability does Hamas still have on hand? Can they expect to have more arrive soon? What Hamas will do will reflect both willingness and capability."
On the other hand, the situation is unstable due to the lack of a US consistent position in the current domestic political climate. "One strange aspect of this concerns the absence of a US Ambassador to Israel. The lack of this particular diplomatic channel puts more pressure on [US President Joe] Biden and [US Secretary of State Antony] Blinken to answer questions and become more directly involved," James explained. "That high profile is a not a good thing at all because so much of the US response is filtered through domestic politics. Here I mean that Biden is trying very hard to stay out of things because the center and left in the Democratic Party hold very different views of the struggle between Israel and Gaza. Given the contrasting pressures on Biden, the potential for incoherence is high. And US ambiguity is not a good thing in this type of situation, which can re-escalate at a moment’s notice."
The Egypt-brokered ceasefire in the Gaza Strip came into force overnight to May 21, after eleven days of missile strikes. They followed the unrest near the Al Aqsa Mosque in East Jerusalem, triggered by an Israeli court ruling to confiscate homes from several Arab families in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood.
The radicals fired more than 4,000 missiles against the territory of the Jewish state. In retaliation the Israeli military bombed hundreds of targets in the enclave. As a result, a total of 270 people, including women and children, were killed in Gaza and 13 people in Israel.