MOSCOW, July 17. /TASS/. Trump’s Ukraine policy and sanctions warning raise doubts about Russia-US rapprochement; US threat of 100% secondary tariffs on Russia’s trade partners puts global energy ties under strain, and several EU countries refuse to fund US arms for Ukraine. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Trump’s Ukraine stance, sanctions warning raise doubts about Russia-US thaw
Moscow is prepared to discuss with Washington the full resumption of embassy operations and sees potential in strengthening relations with the United States, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs Grigory Karasin told Izvestia. However, the US Embassy has stated that normalization of relations and any expansion of economic cooperation are contingent solely on a peace agreement regarding Ukraine. Despite maintaining a channel of dialogue with Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump has taken a tougher line on Moscow, announcing plans to supply arms to Kiev and threatening across-the-board tariffs on Russian imports.
"We are currently in the process of normalization. We are willing to discuss matters related to the functioning of our diplomatic missions so they can return to normal operations. The process is underway, though regrettably not as quickly as we would like. We consider Russian-American relations to be a highly promising and viable area of engagement," Karasin stated.
Nevertheless, the outlook from Washington on the normalization of relations with Moscow is far more cautious. "Normalization of bilateral relations can occur only after peace is established between Russia and Ukraine. We will not discuss expanding political and economic cooperation until a sustainable peace is reached through negotiations," the US Embassy in Russia told Izvestia.
"Russian-American relations are not solely about Ukraine. A deadlock in that area does not imply a complete standstill across all tracks. I believe that, for Trump, cooperation with Russia on issues like the Iranian nuclear deal is also important - without Moscow, the United States cannot resolve that issue," a leading research fellow at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and a political analyst specializing in American affairs Konstantin Blokhin told the newspaper.
Trump employs an ultimatum-driven approach and tends to link issues that are typically handled separately in traditional American diplomacy, an expert in American studies Pavel Sharikov told Izvestia. According to him, making predictions about the US President is extremely difficult. Experts largely believe that many of Trump’s decisions remain driven primarily by economic interests.
"Trump’s arms deliveries to Ukraine are based on business considerations and financial gain, unlike Biden’s approach, which aimed to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia in Ukraine," Blokhin concluded.
Kommersant: Trump’s threat of 100% secondary tariffs on Russia’s trade allies puts global energy ties under pressure
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has urged Russia’s trading partners to exert pressure on Moscow by demanding an end to hostilities in Ukraine, against the backdrop of President Trump’s threat to impose 100% secondary tariffs on those continuing to purchase Russian energy. Trump’s ultimatum, which expires on September 2, poses a serious test for countries that rely on Russian hydrocarbons. While China has already rejected Trump’s threats, India remains silent, caught between its strategic dependence on Russian oil and its unwillingness to risk a confrontation with the United States, Kommersant writes.
"The nature of the sanctions promised by Trump is such that they are only indirectly aimed at Russia. Directly, they would target countries that buy Russian energy and are not helping Ukraine. The key clients of Russia’s energy sector are China and India. Both are already engaged in difficult negotiations with Trump over a tariff agreement. The new sanctions are intended to make Beijing and Delhi more compliant. However, if applied too forcefully, they could destroy any possibility of compromise, which is not in Washington’s interest," Konstantin Simonov, General Director of the National Energy Security Fund, told Kommersant.
"If Washington tightens pressure on China and India, global oil prices will soar, driving up fuel costs at American gas stations. That would work against Trump. Nonetheless, the new sanctions would still impact the Russian economy. Chinese and Indian refiners would at the very least demand additional discounts. This comes as the EU is poised to adopt its 18th sanctions package, which would lower the oil price cap, further complicating Russian crude shipments to Asia," the expert added.
"For India, Trump’s potential tariffs on Russia’s partners would be more disruptive than for China, as New Delhi cannot afford a standoff with the United States. Yet it also cannot cut itself off from Russian oil, which accounts for over one-third of India’s total crude imports," research fellow at the Financial University under the Russian Government Stanislav Mitrakhovich told the newspaper. He added, "In a worst-case scenario, India is likely to continue importing Russian oil through intermediaries and agents who transfer the oil at sea or at ports in certain Middle Eastern countries, after which the ‘seller’s flag’ is changed,"
If the US attempts to more forcefully compel India to fully abandon Russian oil, the situation could spiral beyond Washington’s control. In that case, a surge in global oil prices would affect both Indian and American consumers, triggering a rise in US inflation, a development that could significantly undermine domestic support for President Trump.
Vedomosti: Several EU countries decline to fund US arms for Ukraine
Several European Union member states, including France, Italy, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, have opted out of financing US weapons shipments for Ukraine, Politico reported. According to the outlet, France’s refusal stems from President Emmanuel Macron’s position that Europeans should strengthen their own defense industry by prioritizing domestic procurement. France is also constrained by budgetary pressures as it struggles to reduce its fiscal deficit. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti attribute the refusal of several EU countries to fund US weapons for Ukraine to a mix of financial constraints, political pragmatism ahead of elections, and a desire to prioritize domestic or European defense industries over American suppliers.
There are also political considerations behind Macron’s stance, Alexey Chikhachev, Senior Lecturer at the Department of European Studies at Saint Petersburg State University, told the newspaper. The French president advocates for purchasing European-made weapons in order to support the continent’s defense manufacturers. This commitment to supporting domestic industry largely motivated Macron’s decision to reject US arms purchases.
The Czech Republic’s unexpected withdrawal from another Ukraine aid initiative is rooted purely in domestic politics, Associate Professor at the Department of Foreign Regional Studies and Foreign Policy at the Russian State University for the Humanities Vadim Trukhachev believes. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, widely seen as the most unpopular head of government in Europe, has suffered politically for his staunchly pro-Ukrainian policies. With parliamentary elections approaching in early October and his coalition facing a likely defeat, Fiala has chosen to dial back both his rhetoric and the extent of his support for Kiev.
The financial burden of acquiring new American weaponry is also a significant factor, Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Russian Government Alexander Kamkin told the newspaper. In his view, many European countries quite simply lack the resources to make such purchases. Germany, however, appears to be positioning itself as the driving force in coordinating European support for Ukraine.
Vedomosti: US, Europe issue Iran ultimatum over nuclear deal
The foreign ministers of France, the United Kingdom, and Germany have agreed to reinstate United Nations sanctions against Iran using the snapback mechanism if Tehran fails to finalize a nuclear agreement with them by the end of August, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said. According to Barrot, Iran has violated the terms of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), thereby granting Paris and its European partners "full legal grounds" to reinstate the embargo on arms sales, nuclear equipment, and financial services, sanctions that were lifted ten years ago in relation to the Islamic Republic. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti agree that while the West aims to pressure Iran into a renewed deal, reimposing UN sanctions could backfire, damaging future negotiations, weakening Western influence, and accelerating Tehran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.
The US, however, appears in no rush to resume negotiations with Tehran. President Trump told reporters on July 15 that there is no need for new talks at this point, as the United States and Israel had already "destroyed most" of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure during recent airstrikes.
The United States and the E3 are acting in alignment against Iran, having perceived a renewed threat from Tehran’s nuclear ambitions following the cessation of the Iran-Israel military confrontation, junior research fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern, Caucasus and Central Asian Studies at the Higher School of Economics Ilya Vaskin told the newspaper. According to the expert, Iran is theoretically open to talks with the Europeans, who are regarded with more trust in Tehran than the Americans. Still, the expert added, any potential nuclear deal would lack substance without US participation.
Western nations are seizing a strategic opportunity created by the end of the 12-day war to pressure Tehran into resuming cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), President of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies Murad Sadeghzadeh believes. He warned that if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, it would no longer see a deal as necessary, which could lead the Islamic Republic to reduce its dependence on Europe and pivot entirely toward the East.
Vaskin also emphasized that the activation of the snapback mechanism would undoubtedly harm Iran’s economy. However, he warned that such a move would deprive the West of its main bargaining chip over Tehran and could ultimately push Iran further toward developing a nuclear weapon.
Izvestia: Russia expands liquefied petroleum gas exports to China amid Western sanctions, US trade duties
Deliveries of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Russia to China could increase by 66.7% in 2025, reaching 750,000 metric tons, up from 450,000 tons in 2024, according to a presentation by Argus reviewed by Izvestia. Experts attributed this sharp rise in exports to Europe’s rejection of Russian raw materials and a decline in US imports resulting from tariff restrictions. However, they also pointed to several persistent logistical challenges slowing significant expansion into the Chinese market, including a recurring shortage of tank railcars, delays at border crossings, and the absence of dedicated LPG transshipment terminals in the Russian Far East.
"At the end of the year, rail shipments to China may reach a minimum of 550,000-600,000 metric tons out of the total 750,000 tons, with the remainder transported by road," an industry source told Izvestia.
"Currently, Russia produces around 16 mln metric tons of LPG annually, while China produces roughly 50 mln tons and imports approximately 35 mln tons. Naturally, amid the ongoing tariff war, China is interested in diversifying its supply sources, and Russia could potentially boost its exports. However, the Russian Far East lacks maritime terminals for LPG," the source added.
The Chinese market, currently unburdened by sanctions, offers strong potential for the growth of Russian LPG exports, General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency of the Oil and Gas Sector Tamara Safonova noted. However, she pointed out several constraints hindering expansion, such as a recurring shortage of tank cars due to retirement of aging units and lengthy delays at border crossings.
Amid the US-China tariff war, Beijing is actively seeking to diversify its sources of raw materials and industrial goods from the United States, Head of the Industry Department at the Institute of Oil and Gas Technology Olga Orlova told the newspaper.
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