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Bank of Russia does not rule out another pandemic wave, geopolitical shocks, $25 oil price

The regulator presented base-case, deflation, pro-inflation and risk scenarios of Russia’s mid-term economic development

© Alexander Shcherbak/TASS

MOSCOW, September 10. /TASS/. Russia’s Central Bank does not rule out another wave of the coronavirus pandemic and other shocks for the global economy, including intensified trade frictions and geopolitical tensions, in its risk scenario of the outlook for 2021-2023, in which it expects oil prices at the level of $25 per barrel, according to the draft of ‘Main areas of the single state monetary policy for 2021 and the period of 2022-2023’ released on Thursday.

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Russian economy may see 5-6% slump, Putin says

The regulator presented base-case, deflation, pro-inflation and risk scenarios of Russia’s mid-term economic development. In the base-case scenario, global economic recovery will be slow and insufficient for returning to the potential level of output that the economy is able to provide with full production utilization, by the end of 2023. Oil prices will stabilize at $50 per barrel by the end of 2022. Inflation in Russia will be close to 4% in case of soft monetary policy.

In the risk scenario, it is expected that together with another incidence rate growth, other shocks for the global economy are possible, such as intensification of trade frictions and geopolitical tensions, debt problems in certain countries and sectors. Despite the OPEC+ agreement, oil prices will plunge to $25 per barrel and will recover slowly to $35 per barrel by the end of the projected period.

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