WASHINGTON, October 8. /TASS/. The United States considered in the fall of 2022 that there was a 50% chance of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, as follows from a new book by Bob Woodward, an American veteran investigative journalist and an associate editor of The Washington Post, excerpts from which were released by CNN.
According to these excerpts, in September 2022 US intelligence allegedly received reports indicating that Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Based on these reports, "the White House believed there was a 50% chance Russia would use a tactical nuclear weapon — a striking assessment that had skyrocketed up from 5% and then 10%," Woodward wrote.
"On all channels, get on the line with the Russians," Biden instructed his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, according to Woodward. "Tell them what we will do in response," he reportedly said.
The book tells about a phone call between Pentagon chief, Lloyd Austin, and the then Russian defense minister Sergey Shoigu. Austin allegedly warned that Russia’s potential use of tactical nuclear weapons would make the American side reconsider "all the restraints" Washington had been "operating under in Ukraine." He also warned that this would lead to Russia’s isolation on the world stage but the Russian defense minister allegedly said that he didn’t "take kindly to being threatened."
Two days after this conversation, according to Woodward, Moscow initiated another phone call where Shoigu said that Kiev was planning a ‘dirty bomb,’ but Austin responded that the US side did not believe such allegations. "It was probably the most hair-raising moment of the whole war," Colin Kahl, a senior Pentagon official, was quoted as saying later.
In late September, when asked whether an attack of Ukrainian drones on facilities in Russia could be a pretext to use tactical nuclear arms, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that there was no need to try to find a link between Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine and the ongoing special military operation as the latter is going completely as planned.
On September 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced some changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine at a permanent meeting of the Russian Security Council. Among other things, the doctrine stipulates that Russia will now recognize support of a non-nuclear state at war with Russia by a nuclear power as an attack, and it allows for a nuclear response to an attack on Russia's ally - Belarus. The revised doctrine also expands the range of countries and military alliances subject to nuclear deterrence, as well as the list of military threats that such deterrence is designed to counter.