BRUSSELS, July 7. /TASS/. NATO needs the Ukrainian offensive to succeed in order to confirm the viability of its new military plans, which will be presented to the alliance’s leaders during the July 11-12 summit in Vilnius and which will act as a basis for military spending planning, a representative of the Brussels military expert community told TASS Friday.
"The Ukrainian counteroffensive uses the same equipment and tactics that the alliance’s military plans, prepared for the Vilnius summit, are based upon. For the first time since the Cold War, these plans prepare NATO for a large-scale military conflict in Europe instead of operations to extend power to remote regions via actions in limited theaters of war. The Ukrainian counteroffensive, which started five weeks before the NATO summit, must tangibly prove the combat viability of the alliance’s military equipment and tactics in a real conflict with a most capable enemy," the expert, who opted to remain anonymous, told TASS. "Should the offensive fail, the principles that lie in the foundation of the recently created military plans will be challenged."
Air support
The expert acknowledged that Kiev lacks "NATO’s main bargaining chip - powerful aviation and naval forces, which play a key role in the alliance’s military planning."
"However, in parallel to the Ukrainian offensive, Europe held the Air Defender 2023 exercise - the largest in the last 30 years - which involved up to 300 aircraft. They practiced large-scale air operations against a technologically developed enemy. Thus, NATO practiced the air component simultaneously with the Ukrainian counteroffensive, but in a training mode instead of a combat one," the expert continued.
According to the expert, a failure of the counteroffensive in Ukraine "will cause the participants of the NATO summit in Vilnius to understand that the recently developed military plans already require improvement, at least in their ground component." Furthermore, "there are no guarantees that the air component, which was not tested in combat against an equal adversary, is just as far from being perfect."
According to the expert, this may lead to "a decline in NATO member states’ trust in the new ‘collective defense’ plans, developed by the alliance’s staffs."
"That is why at least nominal success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is so important for the US and NATO," he underscored.
Psychological problems
"Of course, the [NATO] allies have no room to maneuver right now. Whatever doubts they may have, they are unable not to adopt the new military plans at the summit, because NATO currently has no alternative paths for development right now. Therefore, the consequences of a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive will be psychological rather than practical. It will create numerous small tension points during the negotiations about the specific parameters of military spending increases, the assortment and volumes of military procurement, the level of support to Kiev, and will escalate the competition between US and European military-industrial complexes for future defense orders," the expert noted.