MOSCOW, August 4. /TASS/. Moscow maintains its steady stance on Ukraine despite US pressure and a planned visit by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff; growing European support for recognizing Palestinian statehood is straining relations with Washington; and OPEC+ will raise oil output in September, including higher Russian quotas. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Moscow unfazed by US pressure tactics as it prepares for dialogue with Trump’s envoy
The contacts with Steve Witkoff will reveal the true position of the United States, in contrast to the loud statements coming from the White House, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin told Izvestia. President Donald Trump had announced the visit of his special envoy in the run-up to the expiration of the "resolution deadline" for the Ukrainian conflict and the introduction of new anti-Russian sanctions. Nevertheless, Moscow’s stance remains firm. As Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized during his meeting with Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko, Russia’s primary objective is to eliminate the root causes of the crisis and ensure its own security, while the conditions laid out as early as June 2024 remain in force.
"In foreign policy, and particularly in diplomacy, it is always better to be less emotional and more measured. So, all the emotions now dominating the media space, with all these statements and references to big names, Trump, should be taken calmly," Karasin told Izvestia.
"There will be contacts with him [Witkoff] that will reveal what the United States actually thinks, not for the public eye, about the absolutely destructive role currently played by the European Union countries, which tightly control the Zelensky regime. All of that will be discussed. I believe that following these contacts, we will at least know everything of substance. Therefore, we must remain patient, composed, and resist emotional responses," Karasin added.
The Trump administration is trying to gauge how flexible Russia’s position might be, and the imposition of deadlines for reaching agreements, their tightening, and the media frenzy are all part of a typical pressure tactic in negotiations, believes Ivan Loshkarev, Associate Professor at the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO University under the Russian Foreign Ministry.
"There are threats of expanding sanctions, ramping up NATO’s military activity along Russia’s borders, and establishing new mechanisms to support Ukraine. Some of this may be implemented if the media campaign fails to yield results. To intensify the pressure, there could also be accusations directed at Russia, including claims of cyberattacks," Loshkarev told Izvestia.
"Without a doubt, it is necessary to conduct dialogue with him [Witkoff] and with other US representatives. A return to a constructive tone is possible, but for now, the ball is in the United States’ court. We are by no means refusing a respectful dialogue," Oleg Karpovich, Vice-Rector of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, summarized.
Moscow does not intend to escalate the conflict and Russia is counting on a fourth round of negotiations, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, who has taken part in the talks, told Izvestia. As for Ukraine’s position on continuing direct contacts and the substance of those talks, that will likely depend on the rhetoric adopted by its Western partners.
Vedomosti: US allies shift toward recognizing Palestinian statehood, widening Washington-Europe divide
From July 31 to August 2, US President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, visited Israel and the Gaza Strip. In Tel Aviv, he met with families of hostages held by the radical Palestinian movement Hamas in Gaza, according to Ynet. Witkoff stated that Hamas was allegedly prepared for disarmament, but Palestinian militants swiftly denied this. Meanwhile, experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that Trump’s Gaza diplomacy is largely symbolic, while growing international backing for Palestinian statehood, driven by strategic and political motives, threatens to intensify tensions between the US, its allies, and Israel, and complicates the regional dynamics on the ground.
The visit was an effort by the Americans to demonstrate concern over the crisis, Pavel Koshkin, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told the newspaper. According to him, Trump is worried about the "optics" and the domestic political consequences of the situation. Koshkin added that frustration with Israel is increasing even among Trump supporters. "But the Israeli lobby in the US is enormous. Therefore, Trump can only send Witkoff to Gaza as a signal - to Netanyahu, to his fellow party members, and to Europeans and Canadians who are threatening to recognize Palestine," the expert noted.
Witkoff’s visit came on the heels of a series of statements signaling possible recognition of Palestinian statehood. The first such declaration was made by French President Emmanuel Macron, who expressed this intention on July 24 during the 80th session of the UN General Assembly.
According to Vladislav Belov, Deputy Director of the Institute of Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences, France’s move is largely a symbolic political gesture. Pavel Timofeev, Head of the Sector for Regional Problems and Conflicts at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, added that the issue of Palestinian recognition is not new for Paris and fits within the framework of its broader "Arab policy."
There is certainly coordination between France, the United Kingdom, Timofeev added. Clearly, they are seeking to reassert themselves in Middle Eastern affairs and increase pressure on Israel. Moreover, they are pursuing this strategy as a way to defend their energy, trade, and military-technical interests in Arab countries, he continued.
Tel Aviv views US policy positively - the Trump administration grants Israel broad latitude in its actions, Lyudmila Samarskaya, Research Fellow at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, argued. However, she noted that annexing the West Bank could pose serious challenges on the ground: the legal status of the population remains unclear, the future of the Palestinian National Authority is uncertain, and the economic and demographic costs are significant.
Kommersant: OPEC+ moves forward with output increase despite looming risk of oil market oversupply
OPEC+ remains determined to boost oil production, with the full volume of the previous voluntary cut, 2.2 mln barrels per day (bpd), set to return to the market by the end of September. Russia’s quota has been raised to 9.44 mln bpd. Analysts interviewed by Kommersant describe September as the last favorable month for ramping up output, warning that demand could slacken in the fall, potentially leading to a market excess.
Eight OPEC+ member states will collectively raise oil production in September by 547,000 bpd from the required August level, the organization announced. Russia’s quota for September has been increased to 9.44 mln bpd, up from 9.34 mln bpd in August, excluding any adjustments for previous overproduction. Saudi Arabia’s quota has been raised from 9.75 mln to 9.97 mln bpd, and the United Arab Emirates’ - from 3.27 mln to 3.37 mln bpd.
The decision was made based on the stable outlook for the global economy and favorable market conditions, as evidenced by low oil inventories, the alliance said in a statement. A meeting of the eight OPEC+ member states, where production levels for October will be discussed, is scheduled for September 7.
Igor Yushkov, expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government, believes that OPEC+ is aiming to restore production volumes before the end of the driving season, which concludes in October in the Northern Hemisphere. He told Kommersant that September is the last month in which output can be safely increased without risking market imbalance.
According to Yushkov, demand is likely to ease in October, suggesting that the next production decision could involve a more modest increase or even a temporary pause to give the market time to recalibrate. He also points out that oil prices have remained steady.
The Center for Price Indices noted that various estimates indicate the global oil market could see a surplus of up to 1 mln bpd by Q4. Demand dynamics are currently influenced more by US trade policy, including tariff measures, and a continued decline in motor fuel consumption in China, the organization added.
Kirill Bakhtin, Senior Analyst at BCS, believes that there is no significant risk of overproduction in September, as demand remains strong following summer. In his view, Brent Crude priced at $70 per barrel is comfortable enough to justify completing the quota restoration ahead of schedule, even though the original target date was set for September 2026.
Izvestia: EU loses over 1 trillion euro due to severing energy ties with Russia
The European Union has lost more than 1 trillion euro as a result of cutting energy ties and scaling back trade with Russia, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia. Against this backdrop, the EU economy is losing ground in global competitiveness. Gas prices in the bloc are now 4-5 times higher than in the United States, while electricity is 2-3 times more expensive, he specified. Grushko emphasized that trade volumes between the EU and Russia are approaching zero. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has imposed the 15% tariffs on European goods. Analysts believe the EU economy will take an additional hit, with investment activity virtually collapsing.
"There are various estimates. But according to most experts, total losses have already surpassed 1 trillion euro if we include the termination of energy cooperation with Russia and the decline in trade. In 2013, our trade volume stood at 417 bln euro, last year it dropped to 60 bln euro, and now it is nearing zero. This is lost profit," Grushko told Izvestia.
Previously, Donald Trump met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland. The two sides concluded a political agreement, which is not legally binding. Instead of the initially proposed 30% tariffs, the US President agreed to impose 15%. While Europe may regard this agreement as a victory, the 15% tariffs will nonetheless deal a blow to European exports. The result will be a surge in inflation in both the EU and the US, Georgy Ostapkovich, Scientific Director of the Center for Market Studies at the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia.
"The agreement with the US that Russian energy carriers are being completely removed from the European market and replaced with American ones could spark a conflict between the EU and other suppliers such as Qatar. In addition, it will result in changes to logistics and higher costs," the expert noted.
Severing economic ties with Russia, coupled with a trade conflict with the US, is diminishing the EU’s global competitiveness and effectively undermining investment activity within the bloc, Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Russian Government Alexander Kamkin told Izvestia.
"Trump’s tariffs will significantly complicate life for Germany’s automotive sector and especially its chemical industry, since much of German output is exported to the US in the form of semi-finished goods. Overall, the EU economy will decline further, and there will be no real prospects for growth or investment activity," Kamkin said.
Kommersant: Russia boosts thermal coal exports to Turkey amid hydropower decline
Russian producers of thermal coal are increasing exports to Turkey, where demand has surged due to reduced hydroelectric power generation and consistently strong cement output. The shift is further supported by weakened production in Colombia, Russia’s main competitor in the Turkish market. Experts interviewed by Kommersant believe Russia’s thermal coal exports to Turkey will keep rising in the second half of the year due to favorable logistics and demand, but long-term growth is constrained by Turkey’s strategic shift to renewable energy and limited market space.
As of July 25, prices for Russian thermal coal with a calorific value of 6,000 kcal/kg rose by 2.9% week-on-week to $88.20 per ton, according to a report by NEFT Research. This was the highest weekly price gain among Western markets, the analysts noted.
NEFT Research attributed the increase in Turkish market prices to heightened coal demand amid reduced hydropower output due to elevated temperatures and stable cement production levels.
"Russian coal has been in demand in the Middle East thanks to its reasonable price and high quality," the analysts observed. The primary demand is for high-calorific thermal coal (around 6,000 kcal/kg), used in power generation and industrial applications, Nikanor Khalin, Senior Analyst at Eiler, added.
According to NEFT Research, Russian coal exports to Turkey, including shipments by sea, could reach 25-30 mln tons by the end of 2025.
Russia remains a key coal supplier for Turkey. Relatively efficient logistics across the Black Sea and the availability of coal that meets Turkish quality requirements support Russia’s competitive position, Khalin noted. However, the ceiling for export volumes is already near, cautioned Kirill Lysenko, Analyst for Sovereign and Regional Ratings at Expert RA.
"There is little room left for Russian companies to expand their share in the Turkish market. In the medium term, the potential for growth in exports is also limited, given Turkey’s gradual transition toward greener energy sources," Lysenko said. He added that of the 13,000 MW of power capacity currently under construction or planned in Turkey, approximately 90% is based on clean energy generation.
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