SHANGHAI, April 30. /TASS/. An increase in oil production by the United Arab Emirates following its withdrawal from OPEC will not suffice to offset the global supply shortage, according to Qian Xuming, an expert at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.
"Even with an emergency production expansion, the UAE cannot eliminate the substantial deficit in the global oil market," he said in an interview with the Guancha news outlet.
According to the expert, the UAE's capacity for expansion is limited. Its quota under the OPEC+ agreement stands at 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd). While daily output could see a short-term spike of 1.5 million bpd, long-term growth is subject to a ceiling.
The UAE's daily production is projected to reach 5 million barrels by 2027. However, Qian Xuming believes that actual growth in output and exports will be constrained by infrastructure, technology, associated gas processing capacities, investment pace, and available export channels.
In the event of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE's primary alternative export route is the pipeline linking Abu Dhabi storage hubs to the port of Fujairah, the expert noted. The pipeline’s design capacity is 1.8 million bpd. As of late March 2026, oil exports from the port had risen to 1.7 million bpd.
"Its overall throughput remains relatively low, which limits expansion potential. Furthermore, Fujairah is not currently a major LNG export hub for the UAE and cannot serve as a substitute for the Strait of Hormuz in the short term," Qian Xuming said.