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OPEC forecasts US oil production to peak in 2030

According to OPEC’s forecast, US oil production is projected to reach 23.1 mln bpd by 2030

VIENNA, July 10. /TASS/. The United States is projected to reach peak production of liquid hydrocarbons at 23 mln barrels per day (bpd) in the early 2030s, after which output will gradually decline through 2050, according to OPEC’s latest forecast.

Overall, non-OPEC+ countries are expected to achieve a maximum production level of 59.8 mln bpd by the middle of the next decade, after which output will stabilize at or slightly below this level until 2050, with supply growth from these countries clearly slowing, the organization noted.

The primary driver of this growth will be the United States, contributing 1.4 mln bpd, or just over 25% of the increase, followed by Brazil, Qatar, Canada, Argentina, and other countries. Shale oil will account for most of this growth, though production is expected to gradually decline after the 2030s due to the progressive depletion of reserves.

According to OPEC’s forecast, US oil production is projected to reach 23.1 mln bpd by 2030, compared with 21.8 mln bpd in 2024. Shale oil and tight oil output are expected to increase to 16.5 mln bpd from 14.7 mln bpd in 2024.

By 2035, total production is forecast to decline slightly to 22.3 mln bpd (including 16.4 mln bpd of shale oil), dropping further to 21.3 mln bpd (16 mln bpd) by 2040 and to 19.6 mln bpd (14.8 mln bpd of shale oil) by 2050. This implies that average US oil production by 2050 will be 2.2 mln bpd lower than in 2024.

After 2030, the long-term growth in oil production outside of OPEC+ will be driven primarily by Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, partially offsetting declines from more mature producers.

Nevertheless, liquid hydrocarbon supplies from non-OPEC+ countries will increase by 5.6 mln bpd by 2050, to 58.9 mln bpd from 53.3 mln bpd in 2024. In 2030, they will amount to 59 mln bpd, in 2035 - 59.8 mln bpd, in 2040 - 59.7 mln bpd.

Canada, in particular, will increase production to 6.4 mln bpd by 2030 from 5.9 mln bpd in 2024, to 6.5 mln bpd by 2035, and to 7.7 mln bpd by 2050.

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