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Oil price may exceed $100 amid price cap, expert says

Russia’s export may be reduced by 1-1.5 million barrels per day in December and January, Kirill Melnikov, head of the Energy Development Center, added

MOSCOW, December 3. /TASS/. The global oil price may exceed $100 amid the introduction of the EU’s $60 price cap for Russian oil and possible reduction of Russia’s exports, says Kirill Melnikov, head of the Energy Development Center.

EU member states negotiated a $60 price cap for Russian oil shipped by sea Friday, and the decision is now to be approved by the European Council. The agreement implies introduction of a correction mechanism, which will require that the import price for the Russian oil stays at least 5% below the market price.

"The cap level itself is irrelevant by itself, because Russian companies will not sell oil under it anyway. Accordingly, supplies of Russian oil via European shipping and insurance companies will interrupt, which may reduce Russia’s export by 1-1.5 million barrels per day in December and January. This will likely lead to a price hike above $100 per barrel," he said.

Meanwhile, Alexander Potavin, lead Finam analyst says that the negotiated price cap level will ensure that the Urals oil will retain a serious share on the global market. According to the expert, the price cap is overall close to the current price, and the supervision mechanism makes it possible to retain the majority of Russia’s oil export; meanwhile, Russia has not yet published any formal documents regarding shipments after the introduction of the price cap.

"This gives us hope for preservation of the significant role of the Urals oil on the global market," he said.

Earlier, Russia claimed it won’t supply resources to the countries that will cap the price for them, that it considers a price cap unacceptable and intends to work only under free market conditions.