MOSCOW, March 24. /TASS/. The Russian banking system is now more prepared for shocks than in the 2008 crisis, according to experts from the National Credit Ratings rating agency.
"The distinguishing characteristic of 2020 is that, in contrast to previous stressful situations (primarily in 2008-2009 and partly in 2014-2015), the problem is not the financial system (global or Russian), but the real economy. Both around the world and in Russia, financial systems and central banks approached the beginning of 2020 in a much more prepared state: tools and experience were accumulated, regulation was significantly improved," experts explained.
According to their estimates, if the stress of 2008-2009 recurs, the losses of Russian banks may amount to about 800-900 bln rubles ($10.12-11.39 bln), but the banking system will remain stable and will show growth by 231 bln rubles ($2.92 bln) next year.
In the event of a crisis scenario, the report forecast a recession of the Russian economy in 2020 by 6-7% and an acute phase of the crisis throughout the year. The negative scenario implies a 4% decrease in GDP and the acute phase of the crisis in the first half of the year, and the moderate stress scenario implies a 2% decline in the Russian economy and also the most difficult period in the first half of the year.