MOSCOW, January 17. /TASS/. Further evolution of anti-missile defense systems around the world makes a multilateral arms race inevitable and pushes countries towards the concept of a pre-emptive strike, as follows from a report authored by experts of the Valdai international discussion club, released on Tuesday. The authors of the report, entitled The Shoot Down/Miss the Target Dilemma: The Evolution of Missile Defense and Its Implications for Arms Control, set themselves a task "to identify fundamental trends and key problem areas and present proposals for potential solutions to minimize the negative implications of missile defense development for international security."
They say that "the logic behind missile defense system development stimulates the offensive and defensive arms race," which puts "tight bounds on the parties’ ability to implement arms control measures." Unrestricted improvement of missile defenses makes it necessary to look for ways of overcoming them with 100-percent certainty. The experts stress that "the emerging risks may push the parties to start an offensive arms race and effect doctrinal shifts with an emphasis on pre-emptive actions by strategic forces."
"Taking into account the lengthy development cycles, production and deployment of strategic missile weapons, we can safely assume that the foundation for a multilateral arms race has been laid for decades to come. The main actors will include the group of five nuclear countries (P5) and nuclear countries outside the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), as well as ambitious regional powers like Turkey, Iran and the Arab Gulf monarchies. With a high degree of probability, this process will affect Poland, other countries in Northern, Central and Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia, with an emphasis on developing long-range anti-ship missiles, inclusive," the report reads.
In this regard, analysts pay attention to two key factors. First, the development of missile defense technologies is proceeding against the backdrop of their accelerated proliferation. Although the traditional frontrunners - the US and Russia - are still out of reach here, ever more players are showing interest in this area. In particular, the authors mention Israel, India, China, Iran, the EU, South Korea and Taiwan among those who are most active in this respect.
The other significant aspect is the unpreparedness of the leading world powers - the United States, Russia and China - for deep interaction to neutralize the risks arising from the steady strengthening of missile defense systems.
"The current international environment, which is marked by a growing exacerbation of rivalry between the great powers, is objectively not conducive towards adopting international restrictions on missile defense development," says the report.
Confidence-building measures
It is precisely due to soaring international tensions that limit the space for arms control that the authors of the reports consider to be crucial to maintaining channels of communication among the key actors.
"In these circumstances, the parties could streamline missile defense development without the risk of being accused of ‘unreasonable concessions’ or ‘losing face.’ Maintaining and expanding the dialogue between expert communities is of paramount importance, and is becoming even more important in the context of a brutal crisis in strategic communications. There is a potential to resume official consultations on common issues like missile defense doctrines, unification of the terminology, strategic risks control or developing approaches to information exchanges with an eye towards maintaining the transparency of military programs," the experts say.
The analysts believe that it is possible to develop and implement confidence-building measures in missile defense, or to exchange notifications or inspections optionally. In some cases, the parties could take unilateral initiatives to improve the international political climate and refuse to deploy the offensive systems in space or to impose a moratorium on testing anti-satellite systems against actual targets in orbit.
However, these initiatives, the Valdai club’s experts say, should not be taken as a full replacement for comprehensive arms control measures in the sphere of missile defense. However, despite their limited nature, they can serve as a foundation for reaching more serious agreements.
Also, they believe it would be advisable for Russia "to draft and publish official declarative policy documents, for example, in the form of the Basic Principles of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Sphere of Aerospace Defense."
"A systematic and detailed description of Russia’s approach to limiting missile defenses with account taken for today’s realities in the military-strategic and international situation appears to be the most important component of such a policy," the report states.