MOSCOW, July 14. /TASS/. US President Donald Trump’s decision to announce a new plan for supplying weapons to Ukraine is an effort to put pressure on Russia as Moscow doesn’t accept his idea of freezing the conflict, according to Dmitry Suslov, deputy director at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics.
Suslov said Trump's plans to supply arms to Ukraine are fairly realistic and stem from his disappointment that the US plan to freeze the conflict was not embraced by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"Over the past months, Trump has been toying with the illusion that Russia would go with the US-proposed freeze option, which envisages that Russia will maintain de facto control over the liberated territories, but will not reach the constitutional borders of the new regions," he said.
"Trump assumed that for the sake of, let’s say, good relations with the US, Russia would go along. This was a mistake, clear to many observers from the start," the analyst continued. "For Russia, an accomplishment of the goals it has set for itself in Ukraine is much more important than a tactical relationship with Trump. And Trump, in the spirit of his foreign policy, is trying to act through strength, ratchet up pressure on Russia and is making loud statements. And today he will certainly make a loud statement threatening Russia that he will ramp up arms deliveries to Ukraine and impose new anti-Russian sanctions."
The analyst believes that Ukraine will be provided with a weapons package, but funds to pay for it will be drawn from the budget that is left over from the times of former US President Joe Biden.
"There is a little less than $4 billion left. That’s without a new, Trump-term arms package for Ukraine," he said. "If Trump asks Congress for a new budget, he will privatize this war. Unlike Biden, the Trump administration will keep the roads open under any circumstances, regardless of whether we agree or disagree on Ukraine."
Trump’s political maneuvering on Ukraine
According to the analyst, Trump is balancing between different groups in the Republican Party and in his inner circle, not only with regard to Russia, but in foreign policy in general.
"These are, on the one hand, MAGA Republicans, who are proponents of noninterference in foreign conflicts, who are against interventionism, who believe that the war in Ukraine is someone else’s war, that Trump should not take over Biden's legacy and should remove himself as far as possible from the Ukrainian conflict and deal with domestic affairs and, at most, focus American resources on the struggle against China. This is one group of influence," he said.
Another group of influence, according to Suslov, consists of the neoconservatives, represented by Senator Lindsey Graham (included on Russia's list of terrorists and extremists), Senator Ted Cruz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
"They, on the contrary, believe that Trump should continue to try to make Russia suffer a strategic defeat, to impose on it an unacceptable ceasefire, which will actually lead not to peace, but to the freezing of the conflict for some time, because the option that Trump proposes does not provide for the elimination of the root causes of the conflict. Consequently, the conflict would be stopped, frozen, but not resolved," he said. "Trump is trying to maneuver between these two groups of influence."
The analyst said US moves about Iran exposed the rift between the two camps, with the MAGA Republicans standing in opposition to joining Israel's war against Iran, and the neoconservatives in support of getting fully involved.
"Trump walked the middle ground, so to say. He was balancing between these two poles and ended up dealing a blow, which Trump presented as the most powerful and grandiose blow in history," Suslov said. "Trump will act and is already acting toward Russia along the same lines. This means menacing rhetoric, certainly some actions to forcefully coerce Russia toward the version of the freeze that Trump is pushing for, but not enough to get completely involved."
On Sunday, Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews near Washington that the US would send Ukraine additional weapons, including missiles for Patriot systems, which would be paid for by the European Union.