TEHRAN, December 20. /TASS/. The regime change in Syria has introduced new threats to Iran's security near its borders, Aram Shahnazaryan, an Iranian political scientist and editor-in-chief of the Alik newspaper, told TASS in an interview.
"What occurred there poses a significant challenge for Iran: there’s no doubt about it, as Iran has lost one of its most strategic footholds in the region. The 'Shiite crescent'—comprising Iran, Iraq, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and Syria—has already been fractured. Now, the pressing question is what will become of Hezbollah, as this organization has also suffered severe setbacks," Shahnazaryan explained.
"Another critical issue is Iraq. American visits to Iraq demonstrate their efforts to persuade the Iraqi government to disband and disarm Iranian-aligned forces in the country. Iran must strive to preserve its influence in Iraq at all costs, as losing it would result in the disappearance of a key Middle Eastern power center. Such a loss would bring security threats directly to Iran’s borders—a deeply concerning prospect," the analyst remarked, emphasizing that, until now, "Iran’s primary security challenges have been located in Syria, roughly 2,000 kilometers away."
"Iran is now closely monitoring how its rivals—Israel and Turkey (potentially)—will act in this evolving scenario, as well as the strategies they may adopt. Similarly, it’s observing how its ally, Russia, will position itself and develop a revised strategy," Shahnazaryan stated.
Regarding the situation in Syria, the expert noted that Iran had repeatedly cautioned the Bashar Assad administration about the looming threats, yet the Syrian authorities failed to address the warnings effectively.
"What transpired in Syria over the past three weeks defies the expectations of many. Iranian security and military officials report that they warned the Assad regime for six months about the military buildup in Idlib. However, these warnings went unheeded. Iran could have intervened but faced two major obstacles: Assad opposed such intervention, and Iran was not prepared to fight in place of his weakened and demoralized army," the political analyst elaborated.
In late November, armed opposition groups launched a large-scale offensive against Syrian army positions in Aleppo and Idlib provinces. By the evening of December 7, they had captured Aleppo, Hama, Deraa, and Homs. On December 8, they entered Damascus. President Bashar Assad resigned and left the country. On December 10, Mohammed al-Bashir, who since January 2024 led the so-called Salvation Government in Idlib province, announced his appointment as interim prime minister. The transitional period will last until March 1, 2025.